The disease is already here. Or, at least, that’s what a lot of economists think:
Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey are increasingly certain the U.S. has slid into recession, a view reinforced by new data showing a sharp drop in retail sales last month.
“The evidence is now beyond a reasonable doubt,” said Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co.
Thirty-six of 51 respondents, or more than 70%, said in a survey conducted March 7-11 that the economy is in recession.
The Commerce Department said yesterday that retail sales fell 0.6% in February; sales excluding the volatile auto and auto-parts categories fell 0.2%. The declines reflect a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70% of U.S. economic activity, as Americans grapple with high gasoline and food costs and declines in home values and other asset prices.
Speaking of asset prices, gold closed at over $1,000 an ounce for the first time. My understanding is that rising gold prices usually indicate uncertainty about the future.
Oddly, my own business is booming. I’m just recovering from an enormous slump that started seven or more years ago.
Mind if I enquire as to what business you’re in?
I have a technology consulting business. I used to be incorporated with employees and the whole schmear but I threw that over about ten years ago. Things went very well for two or three years after that and then tanked in the first quarter of 2001 or thereabouts.
I have an advanced degree in my field and 35 years of experience. I tend to be quite circumspect about what I do because so many people in the blogosphere are in technology in one way or another and are, IMO, ignorant quacks.