Eye on the Watcher’s Council

As you may know the members of the Watcher’s Council each nominate one of his or her own posts and one non-Council post for consideration by the whole Council. The complete list of this week’s Council nominations is here.

The Colossus of Rhodey, “Who Won’t Be the Next President”

Hube makes the point that the answers of most of the Democratic aspirants for the presidency to the question of issuing drivers licenses to illegal immigrants probably rules out their winning in the general election. I think he may well be right. Immigration is quite a stumbling block for Democrats. The answer to the question that’s acceptable to a majority of Democratic primary voters is unacceptable to a majority of general election voters—recall that in recent polls voters that didn’t self-identify as either Democrats or Republicans listed immigration as among their most important issues. That’s why Hillary Clinton’s non-answer—essentially a Rorschach test—is, cynically, the only answer that a Democrat who really wants to be president can give.

Soccer Dad, “What I Didn’t Read in the NY Times”

Soccer Dad accuses Clark Hoyt, the New York Times’s public editor, of a double standard in defending the inclusion of a Hamas spokesman on the newspaper’s op-ed page. I don’t think it’s a double standard but a value judgement: in the case of the Hamas spokesman the news value of his op-ed overrules the hatefulness of the message and the messenger while in the case of a convicted stock fraud giving stock advice the opposite is true.

Done With Mirrors, “Desertion in Perspective”

Callimachus, responding to a newspaper article, considers the subject of desertion in our military. In my view the biggest problem with the original article was that it was inadequately sourced. It was yet another case of the search for a point-of-view getting out so far ahead of the facts that the facts were barely visible on the distant horizon.

The Glittering Eye, “Iran’s Nuclear Development”

In my submission for this week I consider once again Iran’s nuclear development program. By far the most interesting part of this post is the vigorous debate that took place in the comments. My view continues to be that the preponderance of the evidence suggests that Iran does in fact have a clandestine military nuclear development program (or, at least, that they want us and others to believe that they do). It’s obvious, however, from the comments that not everyone agrees with me.

Bookworm Room, “Prophets in a Freudian Age”

I really wonder if the central claim of Bookworm’s post, that those considered prophets in ancient times would be considered mentally ill today, is true. Is the reason that the people wandering the streets of San Francisco today don’t gather a following while Jesus and Mohammed did because we are different or is it because they were different?

I’d also like to make one minor correction or, perhaps, challenge to Bookworm’s post. Did Jesus of Nazareth claim to hear voices or did those who reported his deeds report that they themselves heard voices? What, specifically, in his teachings would be considered ravings if their analogues came from the mouth of a modern?

I would also caution Bookworm to take what Robert Spencer writes with a grain of salt. Is he a documenter or a polemicist?

Cheat Seeking Missiles, “Charting a New Course In Iraq Messaging”

I agree with Laer that Congressional Democrats have created a very difficult position for themselves by tying themselves too closely to withdrawal from Iraq. I’ve always felt that it was a rhetorical ploy they never had any intention of delivering on. What bothers me more than that is the conflation of “ending the war” with “withdrawing American forces”. Does anyone really claim that withdrawing American forces will actually end the war? Or is the claim that withdrawing American forces from Iraq would fan the conflagration there higher but that the death of many more Iraqis than would otherwise be killed and the further wounding of American interests in the region are prices that those who favor withdrawal are willing to pay to remove American soldiers from harm’s way?

Big Lizards, “Blood’s a Rover”

Dafydd ab Hugh attempts to read the tealeaves on the issues most likely to determine the outcome of the 2008 presidential election and I think that his analysis reflects the incredible lack of a meeting of minds in the country today. Democratic activists don’t see the relationship between Iraq, Afghanistan, and the greater war on terror not because they hate George Bush or want America to fail (they mostly do the former and not the latter) but because they don’t think there is a greater war on terror. Events beyond the control of either Democrats or Republicans will determine whether that’s a credible narrative a year from now. In my view if a single issue is most likely to determine the outcome it will be the economy, stupid. The Bush Administration has been remarkable in its inability to relate the good economic news in a way that rings true with the average Joe. I also think there’s a building nativist, isolationist groundswell. It won’t be phrased that way but that will be the net effect. Son of Come Home, America.

‘Okie’ on the Lam, “LA Auto Show 2007 — Expectation Leads to Disappointment… Again”

‘Okie’ reviews the Los Angeles Auto Show and finds it wanting. Hybrids as far as the eye can see. Frankly, I doubt that saving a few bucks on fuel will revive America’s love affair with the automobile. Or, at least, its love affair with the American auto companies.

The Education Wonks, “Administrative Buffoonery: Test Company Gets an “F””

One has to wonder if the reason for the errors in the reading test reported by EdWonk is because those printing the test had reading problems.

Rhymes With Right, “Kennedy Calls for Rape of Justice At Supreme Court”

I’m not sure that Greg should be too concerned about the idea of requiring designates to the U. S. Supreme Court tell how they’d have voted on particular historic cases. If there’s one thing we know about people who graduated from top schools with top grades it’s that they know how to give the expected answers on tests.

Right Wing Nut House, “The Infantilization of American Politics”

Rick Moran points out how far the level of American political discourse has fallen. I think it’s perfectly understandable. When candidates don’t want to be caught in a lie and they know that their answers will be unpopular with substantial parts of the electorate, it’s virtually impossible to resist the temptation to answer every question with Clintonian Rorschach tests (see above) or ensure that every question will be marshmallow fluff. So, how ’bout them Cubs?

Joshuapundit, “Lebanon’s Presidential Election Postponed — Again”

Freedom Fighter comments on the Lebanese election. Or lack thereof.

Well, I’ve decided which posts I’ll vote for this week. Which posts would get your votes?