Speaking of little change the United Nations Security Council has approved sanctions against North Korea:
SEOUL, South Korea – The approval of U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea was unanimous, but sharp divisions remained Sunday over how to carry out the punishment leveled for the North’s purported nuclear test.
One of the biggest differences was over inspecting cargo to and from North Korea to prevent trafficking in certain heavy weapons, nuclear technology and ballistic missiles.
The final resolution was softened and did not mandate searches, and China — the North’s closest ally and largest trading partner — said it would not carry out any inspections.
“China signed on to this resolution. It voted for this resolution. … And so I’m quite certain that China is going to live up to its responsibilities,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Sunday in response.
The complete text of the resolution is here. The resolution calls for North Korea to divest itself of its nuclear weapons, end its development program, demands that other countries end shipments of materials related to nuclear weapons to development and large military equipment to North Korea, allows countries to inspect cargo moving to or from North Korea, and calls for North Korea to return to the six party talks. It is a Chapter 6 resolution and does not authorize the use of force against North Korea.
As best as I can tell the UNSC resolution means that the countries who planned to crack down on North Korean imports and exports will do so with UNSC sanction and those didn’t will proceed on their merry way. I doubt that this will accomplish much but it’s undoubtedly the best that could have been expected from the Security Council.
I continue to be baffled by China’s reactions. Chinese food and energy aid has ensured the survival of the KFR for another year or so and the thanks they get is having their noses rubbed in North Korea’s nuclear weapons development program.
The KFR won’t last forever. China can’t prevent a collapse; IMO the best they can hope for is to manage the collapse and I don’t see how their recalcitrance advances that.
Let’s make no mistake: North Korea is very dangerous. The KFR is teetering on the brink of collapse; the country gets much of its revenue from the sale of weapons and there’s little doubt they’ll be happy to sell nuclear weapons; a nuclear-armed North Korea bids fair to start a move towards nuclear weapons on the part of its neighbors (in this order South Korea, Japan, Taiwan).
So, how will we contain and deter a nuclear-armed North Korea?
The proximity of Seoul, and its millions of residents, to the NoKo border will preclude any military first strike. NoKo reportedly has buried many thousands of missiles, some with chemical warheads. Conventional bombing will not destroy all of these weapons leaving open the possibility of massive civilian deaths. In these current times that possibility will not be tolerated. As to the idea that Taiwan may acquire nukes, that may force China to attack them before they are able to acquire them, much like our reactions to Cuba and the Soviets when they attempted to do it.