As Goes New Jersey

so goes New Jersey. I think that those who see in New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s re-election victory, like Michael Barone, anything other than a victory in New Jersey for Chris Christie are over-interpreting the results. I seriously doubt that Gov. Christie’s style, persona, and even content will play outside New Jersey as it does inside it.

I do find this result from Virginia interesting:

Northern Virginia was perhaps more impacted by the shutdown than any other part of the country. Yet when the exit poll asked who was more to blame, 47 percent of voters said Republicans in Congress and 46 percent said Obama. Considering that individuals almost always poll better than groups of people—particularly Republicans (or, for that matter, Democrats) in Congress, this is a devastating result for Obama.

The government shutdown has already faded from the news. The problems of the PPACA will be in the news and providing headwinds for Democrats for at least the next six months. It will be an interesting midterm election.

7 comments… add one
  • CStanley Link

    Although I agree that Christie’s personality is a natural fit for Jersey but not the the rest of the country, I wouldn’t put it past him to win people over elsewhere. He’s a talented politician and the combination of authenticity and competence may play well in the current environment. I actually think the biggest danger for him is to not buy into the Sandy hagiography too heavily. His speech last night cleverly parlayed it into subtle digs at Obama, but he certainly doesn’t want to inspire Guiliani style jokes – “a noun, a verb, and Sandy.”

  • PD Shaw Link

    The poll on attitudes towards a shutdown is eye-opening, and contrary to my previously stated belief that the shutdown would only have electoral consequences only in places with high federal employment like Northern Virginia.

    Additional explanation to the Feiler Faster Thesis: Government employees are highly cynical of the political class, maybe as much so as libertarians without the anti-government angle.

  • PD Shaw Link

    Most federal workers/retirees reside in Democratic districts.

  • Most federal workers/retirees reside in Democratic districts.

    Blow me down!

  • PD Shaw Link

    Yes, but did you know that in Illinois the district with the most federal workers is a Republican suburban district, held by Roskam, which stretches from Naperville to St. Charles to Barrington? I assume commuters from downtown.

  • Josh Barro disagrees.

    I think he makes some good points, though it’s hard to say for sure. My previous accounting of Christie was that he was definitely a guy I would vote for as governor but not necessarily somebody I’d vote for as president. But I’ve honestly been coming around on the idea.

  • PD Shaw Link

    @trumwill, the funniest part of that Barro piece is his exasperation that the (NY/DC) media just don’t “get” New Jersey. Imagine how the rest of us feel.

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