The thing that I’m most curious about in the election next week (aside from who’ll get elected, of course) is how high the turnout will be among voters who self-identify as Hispanic. You might think that a study like this one would provide a clue but I don’t think it does. The reason I’m skeptical is that the poll doesn’t tell us what percentage of registered voters who self-identify as Hispanic have already voted, for example. It just tells us what they told the pollsters.
Among Hispanic voters (at least according to the Census Bureau) turnout actually increased from 2008 to 2010. Will it increase again? Or will it be unexpectedly depressed, possibly by something referred to as “the Salmon Effect”?
We’ll need to wait until election day, I guess. But that’s what I’m most curious about.