Stu Rothenberg says there are no real prospects for a Democratic wave election with Democrats gaining control of the House:
After looking at all of the individual district polls, those made public as well as dozens that have not been released for public consumption, and talking with both Democratic and Republican insiders whose main interest is understanding exactly what is happening rather than regurgitating the party line, I see little evidence that Democrats are close to gaining the 25 seats they need to win control of the House.
True, some polling is contradictory, and I would not rule out the possibility that there could be a shift in public opinion between now and Nov. 6. But there is no evidence of a wave at the House level.
I continue to believe that the presidential election will be very close. Assume, just for the sake of argument, that the president is re-elected. What happens then?
If the Republicans hold the House, as seems likely, and the Democrats hold the Senate, as also seems likely, I strongly suspect that the passive aggressive stalemate of the last two years will continue. The president has shown little interest or skill in pursuing mutually agreeable compromise with the opposing party. I strongly suspect that he doesn’t believe he should need to.
The Republicans have, if anything, been more hostile to him than he to them. I think that predictions (including those by the president himself) that the House Republicans, chastened by a second defeat in securing the White House, will come to the table ready to give the president more of what he wants are far-fetched to say the least.
Quite to the contrary, I think they’ll be loaded for bear. Each of them will have won his or her own re-election, affirming that what they’ve been doing has been working. Whatever mandate the president has, each House Republican will have a mandate of his or her own.