Well, the major party political conventions are over. For me it couldn’t happen soon enough. I didn’t watch a second of either one of them. For a summary of what happened and what was accomplished you could probably do worse than reading Sean Trende’s analysis.
It looks like my prediction of what the conventions would bring for the candidates is right on target. We’ll see in a week or so.
Update
Apparently, Dick Morrris thinks that Gov. Romney got a bit more out of his convention than I do. However, he also suggests that the president didn’t do much for himself with his own convention, with which I agree.
Well, the major party political conventions are over.
“Our long national nightmare is over.”
Somebody had to say it.
I wonder if Gerald Ford ever thought about that being the most enduring comment of his long political career?
Heck, I thought it was
In the Sean Trende link, the 3rd to last paragraph is what I have predicted. The internal polls are probably much much worse.
If President Obama is reelected, it will be because of Bill Clinton. I am tempted to vote Obama, get the popcorn, and watch the show.
That’s a good line.
Obama had a good line about the Republican solution to everything: “Feel a cold coming on? Take two tax cuts, roll back some regulations, and call me in the morning!”
Otherwise, I don’t think I remember a damn thing about Obama’s speech, which is more than I can say about Romney’s speech, which I fell asleep in the middle of.
Sometimes what you get from an event, such as the DNC or the RNC, is a feeling..that feeling that you know something, but just can’t express it with words just yet…when you’re having a conversation with someone..or listening to someone speak..that feeling you get in the pit of your stomach, is asking you, can trust this guy, or not. I think we are seeing change..it’s been happening for some time now….some of the fear, anger and other blinding emotional issue we’ve been dealing with is beginning to subside…remember the Mayor from San Antonio…his brother…others…a really big change is coming…a new culture, a new way of seeing things…??
Yeah, a complete loss of the ability to think critically or logically. See my posts on “Visualcy”.
Unless the tribal thing is important to you, I am not sure why people watch the conventions.
Steve
Yeah, a complete loss of the ability to think critically or logically.
Wait, you mean we’re not there yet?
Yeah, a complete loss of the ability to think critically or logically. See my posts on “Visualcyâ€.
I would like to suggest that you try reading The Master and His Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World is a 2009 book written by Iain McGilchrist
Let us have this conversation in 25 years when the ethnicity of the US changes…
Ultimately when looking at these campaigns the best way to gauge how they’re doing is to simply ask oneself, “Which campaign looks like a winner?” Four years ago after the conventions Obama’s campaign just looked like a winner. Vigorous, upbeat in mood. They looked like winners and McCain’s campaign looked like a loser, especially after the debacle with the White House meeting about the state of the economy.
Right now the Romney campaign looks more like a winner, mostly because they aren’t acting desperate -they’re not really vibing “WINNER” yet but they do vibe as though they believe they will win. On the other hand, Obama is supposed to campaign with Charlie Crist tomorrow in Florida. So Obama has chosen to align himself with the least popular and most disrespected statewide politician in Florida because … why? This really looks pathetic.
Let us have this conversation in 25 years when the ethnicity of the US changes…
It’s already changed. I have no idea where you’re living that you haven’t noticed.
Icepick
I agree that the Romney/Ryan ticket seems to have the wind at it’s back following these conventions. However, a big reason for that may be that they are the new guys on the block. Their philosophies/general policies, although snidely compared to Bush’s, still holds a different path than the dead end one we are currently embarked upon.
Obama’s was the fresh wind in 2008. But it, now seems to need a window opened to air out the staleness of all that has fallen by the wayside and not worked.
I couldn’t sleep last night, so ended up listening to a guy on the radio talking about the economy. When asked about how it looked down the road, his answers were far from optimistic. He opined that people were hiding the real state of the economy, the real numbers and fiscal problems until this election is decided. 2013 looked dismal to him, no matter who won the election.
After today’s job numbers revealed how many opted out of the work force, giving a lower EU number of 8.1%, despite the palty jobs report, it seemed to only back up what I was hearing hours earlier. In fact, JimPethokoukis has stated that if the labor force rate had stayed the same as last month, the unemployment rate would be 8.4%.
Basically, it seems the stats people rely on, as temperature readings of the country, are false reads, tweeked by how these numbers are derived and put together.
After today’s job numbers revealed how many opted out of the work force….
Correction: They’re not opting out, they’re giving up. There’s a difference.
Of the two conventions, the Democrats’ was far and away the best. Michelle Obama was affecting; Bill Clinton wrought the details in a way the Republicans have avoided; while Barack Obama didn’t shy from talking about hope. The other speakers from Giffords to Biden to Granholm very strongly communicated the Democratic message. As for the Republicans, the only memorable moment was Eastwood’s chair. Romney didn’t say much. Ryan’s speech was riddled with misstatements.
Regardless of which side you are on in this debate, there is no doubt the Democrats achieved their political goals, while the Republicans fell short. There’s still the debates to come.
Regardless of which side you are on in this debate…
And there’s little question where your allegiance lies….
… there is no doubt the Democrats achieved their political goals….
… which is to completely ignore the fact that this president has a disastrous record of broken promises and utter economic incompetence. Over three years of economic recovery and the only reason the US-3 rate is under 11% is because the BLS has disappeared millions and millions of workers. Over three and a half years in and Obama still hasn’t closed Gitmo like he promised, and has mostly avoided using those facilities at even greater rate because he has decided that killing everyone that might be useful to capture is the way to go. (Along with there families, neighbors and anyone that might be in the blast radii of a couple of Hellfire missiles.) A President who has further eroded the rights of citizens by getting it codified into law that he can detain citizens indefinitely with no judicial review merely on suspicion. A President who has made assassination THE major foreign policy tool in his arsenal. A President who promised to halve the deficit but has instead nearly quadrupled it. Et cetera.
So as along as they don’t talk about their record, they’re golden! And fuck the rest of us, because if we mattered we’d be getting some sort of money from the Federal government like his buddies at places like Solyndra or the UAW.
Yeah, great convention, except for having to cancel not one but two massive events because no one wanted to come worship the God of the Democratic Party like they did four years ago. Great convention, what with the delegates threatening to kill the opposition. Great convention, with numerous delegates going on record as wanting to ban corporate profits and revealing themselves to be the communists that their nutty detractors on the right claim them to be. Great convention, with The One’s acceptance speech echoing Jimmy Carter’s acceptance speech – from 1980. Great convention, getting punctuated with yet another lousy employment report the next morning.
The only thing that comes close to being as sickening as the thought of Obama getting re-elected is that the only alternative is Romney. So I guess the convention was a success after all.
Granholm’s performance was good? You mean the one where she imitated Dwight Schrute channeling Benito Mussolini?
Speaking of Presidential failure:
Icepick: … which is to completely ignore the fact that this president has a disastrous record of broken promises and utter economic incompetence.
Yes, as that wasn’t the topic of the thread.
“Blood alone moves the wheels of history!”
Icepick,
All good points from you. I’ve become baffled as to why Obama seems to have all his failures wash off him, much like water does on duck feathers. However, here is a decent response to this in John Hinderaker’s Power Line article : Why this election is close?
He goes on with a final summary, as well as a prediction of what an Obama reelection might install in this country:
As one poster said, who was not enthused about either candidate: “If Obama wins we are screwed. If Romney wins we might be screwed. I prefer to go with the possibility of not being screwed.”
I agree that the topic was the convention, which is why I say it was great that they didn’t talk much about how colossally bad the economy remains. And mentioned that any moment they had was likely blunted by another shitty economic report the next morning.
I also rather snarkily mentioned that Granholme looked like a fool, Dem delegates were caught wanting to ban corporate profits, another delegate was on record as wanting to kill the opposition, and that they had to claim the weather forced them to cancel one event (was there any rain in Charlotte that night?) when the problem was that they couldn’t get enough butts to fill the seats, and that another big event was cancelled a few weeks ago (IIRC) because the DNC ran short of money – and also likely could not have put enough butts in seats to make the thing look good.
So yeah, as long as you ignore the bad stuff (including the President’s actual results versus promises, which surely should be a topic of conversation for a President running for RE-election), it was a great convention.
And let’s not forget the rampant cheer leading from the alleged news organizations for the DNC while stating on mic that the Reps wanted to party while black people drowned. So the coverage was perhaps just a bit skewed.
All good points from you.
Especially the Mussolini quote. 😉
jan, I look at Romney’s record, and I see someone that feels that more government is the answer. The same with Ryan. I look at the Republican leadership they will interact with in Congress (in a best case scenario for the Republicans) and I see a lot of the same people that wanted Medicare Part D, unfunded wars, massive farm and transportation bills, and didn’t practice what they claimed were their ideals. It’s not like Republicans have purged their leadership.
Based on the evidence, the best that can be hoped for is that a Romney Presidency will be slightly less awful than Obama’s, and that is ignoring the fact that Romney at times sounds crazier than John McCain in his enthusiasm for foreign adventurism. \
I cannot support more spending, more foreign wars and more tax cuts. And that’s what Romney and Ryan are promising. Add to that they haven’t said squat about rolling back the civil rights abuses of the past two Presidencies and Ryan wants to ban birth control as well as abortion, and I’m not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling of governmental restraint from these guys.
jan: With over 100 million Americans receiving federal welfare benefits, millions more going on Social Security disability, and many millions on top of that living on entitlement programs–not to mention enormous numbers of public employees
100% of the people in Canada and the U.K. receive government benefits, yet still manage to compete in international markets.
Icepick: So yeah, as long as you ignore the bad stuff (including the President’s actual results versus promises, which surely should be a topic of conversation for a President running for RE-election), it was a great convention.
Your views don’t change that the Democrats achieved their political goals, while the Republicans fell fall short.
“tonight when everybody leaves, lock the doors. You don’t have to come back tomorrow. This convention is done,” Alex Castellanos (former aide to Mitt Romney) said. “This will be the moment that probably reelected Barack Obama.”
That might be a bit of overstatement, but the movement in the polls, and the electoral math, make it increasingly difficult for Romney to find a path to victory.
100% of the people in Canada and the U.K. receive government benefits, yet still manage to compete in international markets.
The UK’s economy is slumping, with growth predictions cut. As for Canada, it’s a mixed bag of socialized medicine, but I think the PM cut taxes, and their regulations are more business friendly than ours. I presume their corporate taxes are lower too, as we have the highest in the world.
Regarding Obama winning the election: our economy will not grow if all the taxation that Obama wants comes into being next year. I think we will go into another official recession, more jobs will be lost, and I don’t see how the stock market can continue in it’s rose-colored glasses upward tilt. More and more people will be seeking government help. Where will all the money come from? To me it’s a gloomy outlook. And, with the ACA kicking in …. oh well…..
jan: The UK’s economy is slumping, with growth predictions cut.
Yes, they went with a Conservative government this go round. Didn’t work out quite as well as hoped.
jan: I presume their corporate taxes are lower too, as we have the highest in the world.
Actual corporate taxes are average in the U.S.
http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/corporate-taxes.jpg
Note that what Zachriel is citing here is tax revenues not tax rates. It’s an open question whether increasing the corporate tax rate would increase revenues. I tend to think that it would increase tax avoidance and lobbying rather than revenues. ROI is excellent on lobbying.
To the extent that raising corporate tax rates would be successful it might be successful in decreasing the already-too-slow rate of new business formation.
IMO the preferred solution should be to abolish corporate income taxes and increase the personal income tax to make up for the lost revenue but, of course, the former is politically intolerable to Democrats while the latter is politically intolerable to Republicans.
@jan
I disagree with your Power Line link. I think the assumption that the American people are “on the dole” and want to keep it is flawed. Working hard and playing by the rules is for suckers, and it is getting worse. Doing the right thing will not improve anything, and in this environment, not taking government money is a disadvantage.
If Romney/Ryan can change this, the number of people “on the dole” will decrease, but an substantially improving economy will cause a much larger decrease.
I also disagree with the Obama is winning argument. Bill Clinton was rolled out to get the Clinton Democrats to vote for Obama. If this group stays home, the election will be close. If they vote Romney, it will not. While the pundits are predicting an easy Obama win, the Obama campaign is not acting like this is going to be close.
The conventional wisdom is only wisdom during conventional times.
Tastybits
I actually hope you are right that the presumption of Power Line’s thinking is off base. However, I tend to think that the nanny state mentality is tempting to many. ‘Not working’ can become a habit, and getting money from the government can quickly turn into an assumed ‘right.’ Once people become comfortable with government money augmenting their life, with no sunset clause for such monies, it becomes harder and harder to cut loose from it — kind of like getting use to not having one’s parents supporting you.
@jan
I think that most people want to do the right thing, but many times, it is useless. If the system could be fixed, most people would do what it takes.
Many people receiving money from the government are un/underemployed, but given the choice between a job and the dole, most would take the job. Get the economy moving, and this group will mostly go away.
Most senior citizens do not want to change SS or Medicare, but they do not want to bankrupt their children and grandchildren. Most of them would accept changes if it would benefit their children & grandchildren.
I am on disability from the VA. I have medical issues, but I it does not presently affect my work. I only need the medical, but I also get the pay. It is a package deal. I would gladly give up the pay if it were an option. I would ask for two years to get my finances in order. (in 12 months 50%, in 24 months 0%) I suspect a lot of disabled vets would take this deal also.
If the tax code were to be revised, I would give up my home mortgage deduction if it would help the country, but I expect everybody to give some. I want to remove the other tax loopholes. One person’s tax incentive is another’s tax loophole. I want the bottom to pay some tax. A progressive system should allow for a minimum tax rate for the bottom.
When the bankers (and others) are being bailed out, it is to save western civilization, but when it is the little guy being bailed out, it is destroying western civilization. I have a problem with that.
The left assumes that few people can do anything without government help, and the right assumes that most people will do anything to get government help. I find both assumptions to be repugnant.
” I would give up my home mortgage deduction if it would help the country, but I expect everybody to give some.”
Tastybits,
Over at OTB they do not have the ‘giving something up to save the country’ attitude like you have expressed. One’s house mortgage was discussed, and then bemoaned by some as being unfair and helping the rich, should the mortgage deduction be touched.
I personally think it would negatively effect an already fragile housing market. However, I think 2nd homes etc., should not have these deductions.
You seem like a ‘fair’ man, not in the way the obama expresses fairness…but, rather, voluntarily ‘fair’ because that’s just part of your operating principles.
@jan
My plan would be simple: (1) no deductions, (2) progressive rate, (3) bottom end pays something, (4) all benefits are income, (5) tax rates will be reduced. In 12 months, all deductions will be reduced by 50%, and in 24 months all deductions will be eliminated. Somebody else can work out the corporate and investment tax code. This would be an easier sell than most people think.
I do not think the housing market will be affected by eliminating the mortgage deduction if the tax rates are lowered to compensate. I do not know anybody who has used the tax deduction in their decision to buy a house. If the tax rates are lowered to have no or a small increase, most people would not feel it.
The usage of “fair” by many is actually “unfair”. Making the tax code more “fair” will result in an unfair system. People who are taking every deduction they can find are not suddenly going to stop because it is fair, and the liberals/progressives will continue to pay as little as possible. They should joyously embrace my plan, but I am not holding my breath.
The only way out of this mess is through a substantially growing economy. This will decrease money spent for social programs, and it will increase money from taxes. Unfortunately, little of what is being discussed will do much, but world events may save the day.
If by “save the day” you mean “cast the balance of the world into chaos and poverty”, I’m afraid you may be right.