Did the attack on the mosque in Samarra nudge Iraq towards civil war?

Map of Sunni mosques attacked in Baghdad. Click to enlarge

That’s certainly what you’d conclude from reading this article from The Independent:

Iraq took a lethal step closer to disintegration and civil war yesterday after a devastating attack on one of the country’s holiest sites. The destruction of the golden-domed Shia shrine in Samarra sparked a round of bloody sectarian retaliation in which up to 60 Sunni mosques were attacked and scores of people were killed or injured.

The bomb attack has enraged the majority Shia population, who regard the shrine in the same way that Roman Catholics view St Peter’s in Rome.

In a number of respects civil war in Iraq has already begun. Many of the thousand bodies a month arriving in the morgues in Baghdad are of people killed for sectarian reasons. It is no longer safe for members of the three main communities ­ the Sunni and Shia Arabs and the Kurds ­ to visit each other’s parts of the country.

“Iraq is in a Weimar period like Germany in the 1920s which will either end with the country disintegrating or in an authoritarian government taking power,” said Ghassan Atiyyah, an Iraqi political commentator.

Professor Juan Cole of Informed Comment also finds the situation very troubling:

Tuesday was an apocalyptic day in Iraq. I am not normally exactly sanguine about the situation there. But the atmospherics are very, very bad, in a way that most Western observers will miss.

The day started out with a protest by ten thousand people in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, against the Danish caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. These days, Shiites are weeping, mourning and flagellating in commemoration of the martyrdom of the Prophet’s grandson, Imam Husayn. So it is an emotional time in the ritual calendar. when feelings can easily be whipped up about issues like insults to the Prophet. An anti-Danish demonstration in Karbala is a surrogate for anti-American and anti-occupation sentiment. The US won’t be able to stay in Iraq withiut increasing trouble of this sort.

Riverbend, one of the most prominent Iraqi bloggers, appears to agree:

We woke up this morning to news that men wearing Iraqi security uniforms walked in and detonated explosives, damaging the mosque almost beyond repair. It’s heart-breaking and terrifying. There has been gunfire all over Baghdad since morning. The streets near our neighborhood were eerily empty and calm but there was a tension that had us all sitting on edge. We heard about problems in areas like Baladiyat where there was some rioting and vandalism, etc. and several mosques in Baghdad were attacked. I think what has everyone most disturbed is the fact that the reaction was so swift, like it was just waiting to happen.

All morning we’ve been hearing/watching both Shia and Sunni religious figures speak out against the explosions and emphasise that this is what is wanted by the enemies of Iraq- this is what they would like to achieve- divide and conquer. Extreme Shia are blaming extreme Sunnis and Iraq seems to be falling apart at the seams under foreign occupiers and local fanatics.

Zeyad of Healing Iraq has a long list of Sunni mosques, offices, and businesses which have been attacked, apparently in reprisal. He also has several maps of attacks in Baghdad and Iraq overall including the map above.

Treasure of Baghdad is concerned that Iraq is descending into a Lebanon-like civil war:

And now, I am sad to see a country suffered from tyranny will suffer from a civil war. I am afraid that we’ll have the same fate of Lebanon. I don’t know if this civil strife will stop or continue. Even under dictatorship and tyranny, we have not gone through such a day. It is hard to see this beautiful and ancient country destroyed. It seems what the Americans have done was not enough. Iraqis should suffer, be killed, watch themselves humiliated, and kill each other just because America wants to remove Saddam from its way to make the world safer. Or let’s say to make America safer and hell be with the non-Americans as some of them say. Let the whole world be happy and “safe” now because Iraq’s “liberation” made it safe for them, but unfortunately made it a hell for Iraqis.

But I also recommend you take a look at this incredible must-read post from Iraqi journalist 24 Steps to Liberty who paints a somewhat different picture:

I was shocked today when I read the news in the foreign newspapers. No one emphasized the marvelous cooperation and solidarity between the Shiites and the Sunnis in Iraq yesterday after the bombing of one of the most respected and visited holy sites in Islam, the Askariyah shrine, which is in Samarra city north of Baghdad. The shrine contains the remains of two 9th century Imams, Imam Ali al-Hadi and Imam Hasan Askari. They are now wrongly considered as Shiite Imams. [Just so you know, in the 9th century there weren’t Shiites and Sunnis yet. There were Muslims, who were fighting each other over power. And later on they invented Sunni and Shiite parts of Islam. Also for a background, all the dead “Shiite” Imams of the earlier centuries, like Mousa Kadhum, Ali, Hussein, and others, are considered as Sunni Imams too and are very much respected by all Muslims because they descend from Profit Muhammed. Sunni Imams, like Abu Haneefa, Abdul Qadir Gailani, Ahmed Rifaie, and others, cannot be considered as Shiite Imams because not all of them share the same grandfather. Therefore, I told my friends yesterday that the terrorists played it wrong. if they want to provoke a civil war, they should attack shrines of Sunni Imams, because that would upset more Sunnis than Shiites, not like yesterday. Yesterday, the attack upset and angered Sunnis and Shiites equally.

You must read the whole thing. He has lots of concrete examples and quotations. He concludes:

I was amazed how only the provocative and civil-war-style quotes were published today in the newspapers. Almost no newspaper showed how great, it appeared to us, the solidarity among Iraqis was yesterday. It is true that Sunni mosques were attacked by unknown men yesterday, and some Sunnis were killed. But that wasn’t the only thing happened as a reaction. Newspapers should have been neutral, as we were taught, and show both sides. Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, Arabs, Christians, Sabians, Turkumans, and others publicly condemned the attack, but no one wanted to show the truth. I am not saying there will be no riots in Iraq to react to the shrine attack. I am not saying there weren’t mosques that were attacked yesterday and burned down. I am not saying that Shiites and Sunnis kissed and hugged after the attack yesterday. All what I am saying is that the news made Iraqis look like if they were fighting each other widely in the streets, which is not true. The news only made Iraqis sound like barbarians killing each other. There are barbarian Iraqis, like other people in the world, I am not saying all Iraqis are perfect and compete with angels in their manners. But why when anything good happens, they show the bad side of it too in their stories, but when any bad thing to happen, they only write about it and not the good sides around it?

Mohammed of Iraq the Model has a rundown of official statements and media reaction. He sees a thin sliver of hope:

The Sunni political leaders were invited to a meeting with the UIA suggested by president Talabani but they refused to join the meeting saying the government has to condemn attacks on their mosques as well before they consider ending the boycott.
Talabani responded positively to their demand and gave a short statement to the press half an hour ago and condemned all attacks on worshipping places of all kinds.

The situation is still very tense but the good thing is that the Sunni have not returned the attacks and I hope the Shia have satisfied their vengeance by now because I don’t want to even think of what can happen if this situation lasts longer than this.

Bill Roggio of The Fourth Rail, recently returned from reporting in Iraq, presents a list of indicators which, if they were present, might suggest that there’s a civil war in Iraq including:

• The Shiite United Iraqi Alliance no longer seeks to form a unity government and marginalize the Shiite political blocks.
• Sunni political parties withdraw from the political process.
• Kurds make hard push for independence/full autonomy.

Another must-read post. Make up your own mind on what the situation there actually is.