Ritholtz on Retail Sales

Barry Ritholtz is skeptical of predictions of a big resurgence in retail sales:

What is the bottom line? We have been adding jobs this year versus the last two years, and we should see some modest improvement in holiday sales. Easy comparables, better weather (plus inflation) suggest an improvement in retail sales versus 2010, consistent with the first 10 months of the year.

Go to the link for the details.

If my favorite metric, the mall parking lot-o-meter, is any gauge, this is the slowest holiday season in my memory. I don’t every recall ever seeing such empty shopping malls at this time of year. Maybe it’s difference elsewhere in the country that it is around here. Maybe the shoppers will pour in later. Maybe the difference will be made up in online or catalogue sales.

3 comments… add one
  • michael reynolds Link

    I was forced into the far-off overflow parking lot at our mall. But this isn’t a typical region.

    A problem with the parking lot metric is that I’ve just shopped for my daughter’s birthday and Christmas for both kids and I’ve made only one quick trip to an Apple store. It’s not because I’m not buying. I shop online, and some of what I buy is downloadable. For us a UPS/FedEx metric would work better, or perhaps some sort of bandwidth metric.

  • ponce Link

    “Black Friday sales up 7%” seems to be the most common headline from a couple weeks ago.

    Ritholtz is the one engaging in hype.

  • Brea Mall parking lot was packed before Chrsitmas….yeah a single data point, but oh well.

    And as Michael notes, there is online shopping now as well. So the parking-lot-o-meter might not work as well as it has in the past.

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