As I’m sure you must know by now Katrina has grown into a Category 5 hurricane, has turned west, and is heading for New Orleans:
NEW ORLEANS (AP) – Hurricane Katrina strengthened to a dangerous Category 5 storm on Sunday with 160 mph sustained wind as residents of south Louisiana jammed freeways in a rush to get out of the low-lying region and head inland to higher ground.
A hurricane warning was in effect for the north-central Gulf Coast from Morgan City, La., to the Alabama-Florida, meaning hurricane conditions were expected within 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center said. Tropical storm warnings extended east to Indian Pass, Fla., and west to Cameron, La.
Katrina had been blamed for nine deaths in South Florida.
The hurricane’s landfall could still come in Mississippi and affect Alabama and Florida, but it looked likely to come ashore Monday morning on the southeastern Louisiana coast, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. That put New Orleans squarely in the crosshairs.
“If it came ashore with the intensity it has now and went to the New Orleans area, it would be the strongest we’ve had in recorded history there,” Rappaport said in a telephone interview Sunday morning. “We’re hoping of course there’ll be a slight tapering off at least of the winds, but we can’t plan on that. So whichever area gets hit, this is going to be a once in a lifetime event for them.”
Most of the New Orleans-based bloggers have posted brief messages of farewell and prudently departed for higher ground.
The Daily Lush has posted an entry from New Orleans-based playwright Max Sparber on the mixed drink the Hurricane with this reflection about Katrina:
There is a certain poignancy to tonight, though. After all, tonight Pat O’s is filled with tourists who might very literally be dead in the next few days — if the rumors are right, volunteers at DMORT are packing their body bags at this very moment. These very tourists are happily consuming a beverage that bears the name of the monster that might kill them in a bar that might be underwater within a day or so. If the unimaginable were to happen, these might be the last moments of these people in this bar in this city. Unless the most educated men in the study of weather are wrong in their best guess, a disaster named Katrina is coming to bury us all.
But, just at this moment, it is business as usual at Pat O’s, the busiest saloon in America, and “Stayin’ Alive” is playing throughout the bar.
For some perspective on how serious Katrina may be for New Orleans, take a look at this entry from Science Blog from 2000:
(New Orleans)–By the year 2100, the city of New Orleans may be extinct, submerged in water. A future akin to the fabled sunken city of Atlantis? Yes, according to Dr. Chip Groat, Director of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in Washington, D.C., “With the projected rate of subsidence (the natural sinking of land), wetland loss, and sea level rise,” he said, “New Orleans will likely be on the verge of extinction by this time next century.”
University of New Orleans coastal geologist Dr. Shea Penland and coastal geomorphologist Dr. Denise Reed have spent their careers (combined 40 years) figuring out exactly what is driving this catastrophic condition. Their research has identified the specific problems jeopardizing the future of New Orleans and southern Louisiana. “We have the greatest coastal land loss problem in North America. This is more than a serious problem . . . it’s a catastrophic one. We’re living on the verge of a coastal collapse,” warns Dr. Penland.
Currently, 40% of all coastal wetlands in the United States are located in Louisiana, and 80% of all wetland loss in our nation occurs in Louisiana. From 1930-1990, the Mississippi River Delta lost more than 1,000 square miles of land, approximately the size of New Jersey.
Over the last 50 years, land loss rates had accelerated from 10 miles to 40 miles per year by the 1970s, with the current rate being approximately 25 square miles or 16,000 acres of wetlands a year. Coastal Louisiana is poised to lose more than 10,000 acres per year for the foreseeable future.
New Orleans is sinking three feet per century–eight times faster than the worldwide rate of only 0.4 feet per century. Currently, New Orleans, on average, is eight feet below sea level–11 feet in some places.
This could be the precipitating event that causes New Orleans to disappear entirely.
The National Hurricane Center, part of the National Weather Service, has lots of links on hurricane prediction and preparedness.
I’ll be updating this post as more information becomes available.
UPDATE: Confederate Yankee asks an interesting question: what about the incarcerated? Louisiana has a lot of them, many in the far south of the state where the hurricane will hit hardest.
UPDATE: Michele of Meanderings says Katrina bids fair to wipe out her hometown and has a map to prove it. She also supplied this live link for news from New Orleans via WWLTV-4.
UPDATE: One Hand Clapping has a good post on the hurricane with a screen capture of a 7:23am radar graphic, quotes, and historical perspective.
UPDATE: What about those oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico? Updates and speculation from Big Cat Chronicles.
UPDATE: This is the warning from the National Weather Service:
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTEDMOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
Hat tip: Wizbang, who has excellent commentary and coverage of the impending disaster in New Orleans.
The red letters and caps are in the original.
If this were a notice from some crackpot, we’d think they were exaggerating. But, folks, this is from the National Weather Service—not usually known for purple prose. The degree of the potential disaster is just beyond imagining.
MONDAY UPDATE: This morning’s updates are appearing here.
