After hearing a very interesting charge last night from Lawrence O’Donnell on The McLaughlin Group that the Red States were all client states that received more from the federal government in tax dollars than they paid out in taxes, I decided to look into it and here’s what I came up with:
State
Federal Expenditures per Tax Dollar (2003)1
Per Capita Income (2003)2
Gini Coefficient (1999)3
Carried by
Alabama
$1.69
$26,338
0.475
Bush
Alaska
1.89
33,538
0.402
Bush
Arizona
1.23
26,838
0.450
Bush
Arkansas
1.47
24,289
0.458
Bush
California
0.78
33,749
0.475
Kerry
Colorado
0.80
34,283
0.438
Bush
Connecticut
0.65
43,173
0.477
Kerry
Delaware
0.82
32,810
0.429
Kerry
Florida
1.00
30,446
0.470
Bush
Georgia
0.95
29,442
0.461
Bush
Hawaii
1.58
30,913
0.434
Kerry
Idaho
1.32
25,911
0.427
Bush
Illinois
0.73
33,690
0.456
Kerry
Indiana
0.96
28,783
0.424
Bush
Iowa
1.06
29,043
0.418
Bush
Kansas
1.13
29,935
0.428
Bush
Kentucky
1.52
26,252
0.468
Bush
Louisiana
1.47
26,100
0.483
Bush
Maine
1.36
28,831
0.434
Kerry
Maryland
1.34
37,331
0.434
Kerry
Massachusetts
0.78
39,815
0.463
Kerry
Michigan
0.86
30,439
0.440
Kerry
Minnesota
0.70
34,443
0.426
Kerry
Mississippi
1.83
23,448
0.478
Bush
Missouri
1.31
29,252
0.449
Bush
Montana
1.60
25,920
0.436
Bush
Nebraska
1.06
30,758
0.424
Bush
Nevada
0.70
31,266
0.436
Bush
New Hampshire
0.64
34,702
0.414
Kerry
New Jersey
0.57
40,427
0.460
Kerry
New Mexico
1.99
25,541
0.460
Bush
New York
0.80
36,574
0.499
Kerry
North Carolina
1.09
28,235
0.452
Bush
North Dakota
1.75
29,204
0.429
Bush
Ohio
1.02
29,944
0.441
Bush
Oklahoma
1.48
26,656
0.455
Bush
Oregon
1.00
29,340
0.438
Kerry
Pennsylvania
1.08
31,998
0.452
Kerry
Rhode Island
1.06
31,916
0.457
Kerry
South Carolina
1.36
26,132
0.454
Bush
South Dakota
1.49
29,234
0.434
Bush
Tennessee
1.29
28,455
0.465
Bush
Texas
0.98
29,372
0.470
Bush
Utah
1.19
24,977
0.410
Bush
Vermont
1.14
30,740
0.423
Kerry
Virginia
1.58
33,671
0.449
Bush
Washington
0.90
33,332
0.436
Kerry
West Virginia
1.82
24,379
0.468
Bush
Wisconsin
0.84
30,898
0.413
Kerry
Wyoming
1.13
32,808
0.428
Bush
District of Columbia
6.59
48,342
0.549
Kerry
It doesn’t seem to be quite as straightforward as Mr. O’Donnell believes. Yes, quite a few of the states that Bush carried are net beneficiaries of federal largesse. But Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, and Pennsylvania—all carried by Kerry—are such net beneficiaries. And Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Nevada, and Texas—all carried by Bush—pay more out than they receive.
What I found even more interesting was per capita income. Of the states that Bush carried only Alaska, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Wyoming had per capita incomes over $31,500. Of the states that Kerry carried only Hawaii, Michigan, Vermont, and Wisconsin had per capita incomes under $31,000. There may be something to this Red State/Blue State thing after all. But it’s Poor State/Rich State.
By the way, Gini coefficients (measures of income inequality within the state), didn’t seem to make much difference one way or another.
I am suggesting that we adjust the taxes to balence the Revenue and Benifits for each state, after all it is their money.
You know what might be interesting? See if you can filter for affluent areas in the red states — Northern Virginia here in Virginia, and the Research Triangle in North Carolina.
I know that Northern Virginia, particularly Alexandria, and Arlington, is pretty solid blue, with a much higher median income than you see elsewhere in the state. Might be interesting.
–|PW|–
I agree that that would be interesting, pennywit. I haven’t been able to dredge up those numbers and that’s why I included the Gini coefficients. But income inequality doesn’t seem to be a meaningful descriminator.
Pennsylvania is often described as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. I suspect a good portion of that $1.08 goes to farmers in the parts that most certainly did not vote for Kerry.
It doesn’t seem to be quite as straightforward as Mr. O’Donnell believes.
Mm, well, actually it does. Last time I checked (using the 2000 numbers IMS), I found a coefficient of correlation of about 0.6. Also IMS, it rose to about 0.7 when I threw out Alaska, Hawaii and DC.
Three years have passed, so things may have changed. You can check it yourself easily enough — IIRC it took me less than 15 minutes.
Yes, quite a few of the states that Bush carried are net beneficiaries of federal largesse. But Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, and Pennsylvania—all carried by Kerry—are such net beneficiaries. And Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Nevada, and Texas—all carried by Bush—pay more out than they receive.
Some days in December are warmer than most days in October, while the coldest day in October is well below the December average.
Nevertheless, December is much colder than October.
Very interesting about the Gini coefficient. Wow, you can /see/ DC’s missing middle class. I would bet money that it’s dropped a little in the last 5 years, though — a lot of young professionals have moved back into DC since 1999, and there are a couple of new middle-class neighborhoods.
cheers,
Doug M.
My “not that simple” point is that not all Red states are clients just as not all Blue states are creditor states.
Um, did anyone say that they were?
But the correlation is there, and fairly high.
Doug M.
Sure. O’Donnell did.
My town Matawan Aberdeen in NJ which is just a blue collar working class town has the highest residential property tax rate in the ENTIRE nation. Our homes are not worth that much and I notice that my state received the least federal funding of all the states in the country. So that makes quite a bit of sense; we are the beleaguered middle working class that Bush is trying to destroy. Now as further punishment for our keeping our small home town and the two lakes unspoiled they are sending in a JUNK CAR AUCTION right next door to our state park so we will have thousands of junk cars dumped here and will be subject to crime, additional road hazards for our chilren, and pollution of our already embattled drinking water. The reason Hawaii gets more federal largesse even though it went for Kerry is that it is living out the Bush dream quite well. The residences are either fabulous million dollar homes, or else those mobile prefab homes inhabited by workers who hold two or three eight dollar an hour jobs in the tourist industry which caters to the wealthy from all around the world. There is no visible residential middle class in Hawaii. I came to this site because I wanted to find out which states voted for Bush. I receive so many mail order catalogs, I am going to discriminate and not buy from states or contribute to any charities or other solicitations in states which went for Bush. It is bad enough they give us nothing for our highest taxes paid in the nation, Highest taxes, lowest amount spent on our area. And each day of the week I am revolted by all the shooting and burning I see on TV with my tax money in my face to institutionalize mass murder and hate crimes like the Nazi regime, murdering people in their mosques. But the churches and synagogues say nothing becasue they don’t want the Army to come in and start shooting up the churches and synagogues. The Churches and synagogues will be next, especially if they are in a middle or working class neighborhood.