Will Israel invade Lebanon?

The Israelis have hinted that might be the case:

Israeli troops met fierce resistance from Hezbollah guerrillas Thursday as they crossed into Lebanon to seek tunnels and weapons for a second straight day, and Israel hinted at a full-scale invasion.

Israeli warplanes also launched new airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, shortly after daybreak, followed by strikes in the guerrillas’ heartland in the south and eastern Bekaa Valley.

The strikes followed bombings Wednesday that killed as many as 70 people, according to Lebanese television, making it the deadliest day since the fighting began July 12.

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Israel has mainly limited itself to attacks from the air and sea, reluctant to send in ground troops on terrain dominated by Hezbollah.

But an Israeli army spokesman refused to rule out the possibility of a full-scale invasion. Israel also broadcast warnings into south Lebanon on Wednesday telling civilians to leave the region, a possible prelude to a larger Israeli ground operation.

“There is a possibility _ all our options are open. At the moment, it’s a very limited, specific incursion but all options remain open,” Capt. Jacob Dallal, an Israeli army spokesman, told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

Israel dropped leaflets Wednesday night warning the population that any trucks traveling in Lebanese towns south of the Litani River would be suspected of carrying weapons and rockets and could be targeted by its forces.

This all seems terribly reminiscent of Israel’s invasion of Lebanon 10 years ago. Has anything changed? What’s changed?

Many things have changed. The context has changed. Israel has withdrawn from Lebanon and Gaza. Far from mollifying its enemies the actions seem to have encouraged them.

The heat of Iran’s rhetoric has gone up several notches.

Sunni-Shi’a and Arab-Iranian contention for political influence have resulted in a number of Arab countries (or, at least, their governments) coming out against Hezbollah and, implicitly, coming down on Israel’s side. As many people have observed, the present hostilities are not any other Arab-Israeli crisis.

The weaponry has changed. Precision guided munitions mean that significantly more destructive power can actually strike what it’s supposed to strike than was true even 10 years ago.

The motivations have changed. And that just since the hostilities began. Ten years ago Hezbollah’s attacks were damaging and intolerable but they didn’t present an existential threat. Hezbollah’s use of longer range weapons capable of striking Haifa and its possession of weapons capable of hitting, essentially, all of Israel (interdicted by Israelis) provide a significantly greater threat, and, given Iranian production of these weapons and an apparent conduit for them through Syria, potentially an existential one. Iran’s incipient possession of nuclear weapons gives this concern even greater urgency.

Is Israel trying to destroy Hezbollah? Can they succeed where they failed ten years ago? Are they trying to force the hands of some of the other parties? Is this the summer before autumn’s great storm?

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