Consider the Cook Political Report’s assessment of the state of the races for the House of Representatives. They report 161 non-competitive Democratic House seats, 187 non-competitive Republican House seats, 13 likely Democratic seats, 12 “leaning” Democratic seats, 12 likely Republican seats, 11 “leaning” Republican seats, and 33 toss-ups.
Let’s assume that all of the likely and “leaning” seats break for their respective parties and the toss-up seats break 50-50. That would result in a House with 203 Democratic seats and 226 Republican seats.
However, midterm elections generally are at least to some extent referenda on the sitting president and President Biden’s approval/disapproval ratings are the worst of his presidency. If the toss-ups break 2:1 for Republicans that would mean 232 Republican seats and 197 Democratic seats.
The lower the president’s approval rating and based on previous experience the more likely toss-ups are to go to the Republicans and the more seats presently “leaning” Democratic will tend to break for the Republicans.
Democrats had best hope this isn’t a typical midterm election. Or that President Biden’s approval ratings improve soon. The present trend is not in the right direction for that.
