Why Has Violent Crime Declined?

Heather MacDonald muses over why violent crime has declined so notably over the period of the last decade or so:

So what happened? No consensus exists. Favored explanations among criminologists include the collapse of the crack cocaine trade, a shrinking youth population, and a better job market, but none of these theories perfectly fit the data. The spread of New York–style policing and increased incarceration are better, but by no means exclusive, explanations for the national crime drop.

Another possible explanation she doesn’t mention: Kevin Drum’s pet theory that it’s due to the decline in the use of leaded gasoline.

I think it’s probably multi-factorial so looking for one silver bullet isn’t particularly useful.

Something else that goes unmentioned: it doesn’t support the idea that greater poverty and unemployment will lead to more violent crime.

1 comment… add one
  • CStanley Link

    One other possibility (at least as partial explanation) that I don’t see her addressing is manipulation of the statistics. Wasn’t that reported to have happened in a big way in Chicago?

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