In their latest editorial the editors of the Washington Post call, as they have for years, for increased immigration:
The Census Bureau’s latest report on the state of the U.S. population reminds us of this in dramatic fashion. “The year 2030 marks a demographic turning point for the United States,†the report notes. “Beginning that year, all baby boomers will be older than 65.†That is, 21 percent of the entire population will be on Medicare, Social Security or, in most cases, both. Just five years thereafter, in 2035, the number of 65-and-overs will surpass the number of Americans under 18 for the first time in the nation’s history.
In short, the dependency ratio — the percentage of non-working members of society who depend on the working members — is rapidly growing and will exceed 70 percent from 2030 on. Unlike in the last period in which the ratio was that high, 1960 to 1980, however, the majority of dependents will be elderly adults, not children. The Census Bureau doesn’t say so, but we couldn’t help noticing that the onset of these all-but-inevitable developments coincides with two other events that the Social Security and Medicare trustees recently forecast: the exhaustion of the Medicare trust fund in 2029 and the insolvency of the Social Security trust fund in 2034.
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Without immigration, U.S. birthrates will not be sufficient to avoid even more rapid aging of the population and an even higher dependency ratio than the ones the Census Bureau forecasts. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump campaigned on a promise not to touch Social Security and Medicare, and without presidential leadership, not even a Republican Congress is likely to move on that issue.
The evidence that we have the problems of which the editors warn now is meager to non-existent. Very slow wage growth suggests that supply and demand in labor, other than in certain very narrow specialties, are in rough equilibrium. Increasing the number of legal immigrants now would have the effect of depressing wage growth for today’s workers, a consummation devoutly to be wished by American employers who’d just as soon pay less for the work they’re receiving.
As to how to ensure that there are enough American workers twenty years hence, there are ways of accomplishing that using tools that you probably have around the house. What we actually need are psychological, social, and economic incentives for people having larger families. The most important of these is hope.
A falling population and a falling GDP are not problems as long as the per caput GDP doesn’t fall. Some people, like landlords who rent out property, will suffer as population falls, but not everyone.
Economists simply don’t get quality of life issues.
Japan’s GDP has been flat for decades (with variations). Standard of living continues to rise because the population is decreasing.
Why should the enterprise of life want to incentivize breeding? In an group enterprise like visiting the South Pole, scaling Everest, sailing around the world or simple camping, the last thing you need hampering it are kiddies.