The Council Forum question this week is about who the running mates for the Democratic and Republican Parties’ eventual presidential nominees will be? For my fellow Council members’ answers see here.
Here’s what my answer was:
I think that Hillary Clinton will select Julián Castro. She’s a serial bungler so it’s a miscalculation.
On the Republican side I have no idea whom Trump will pick. Gingrich is pretty clearly running for the job but I don’t see how he fits in with Trump’s outsider persona. I don’t think he can pick any regular Republican who will enhance the ticket and put more states in reach.
I’d speculate it will be someone from out of left field. Someone with strong name recognition but not a politician. Think Kanye West or someone of the sort.
I think that with respect to who Trump will pick my fellow Council members are still thinking too much inside the box.
Regarding the title of my post, I have it on good authority that’s not what John Nance Garner said about the vice presidency but this is a family blog.
I thought Trump might have said he was considering someone with inside the beltway experience to help him navigate the corridors. If so, Gingrich seems like the type of outside-insider that would fit the bill. He is not seen as reliably conservative if that would be the purpose, but he is someone who can get caught up in trying to make grand bargains that would etch his name across the pages of history like a big gaudy neon hotel sign.
But really, I don’t care.
How much more inside can you get than Speaker of the House?
Going back to 1976, all but one Democratic nominee for Vice-President has been an official elected statewide, typically a Senator. The one exception was Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and that was very much a “Hail Mary” pick on Mondale’s part due to the fact that it was apparent from the beginning that defeating Reagan in his bid for re-election would be next to impossible.
The last two Presidents regardless of party have picked “elder statesmen” VPs whose selection was obviously meant to balance out the nominees relative lack of experience in certain areas, especially foreign policy. This won’t really be an issue for HRC, and she’s likely to want to pick someone who could be seen as both a potential President if something happens to her and as a potential heir apparent in 2024. This rules out Elizabeth Warren, who is only three years younger than Hillary and would be 74 by the end of an eight year Clinton term.
Keeping that in mind, I’d suggest that a Senator such as a Tim Kaine from Virginia or, maybe, Cory Booker from New Jersey, is a more likely choice than Castro, who is still quite young and whose resume consists of being Mayor of San Antonio and HUD Secretary, both within the past five years. Another name that keeps coming up is Deval Patrick, former Governor of Massachusetts.
I’d welcome Booker. I think he’s an interesting guy.
There’s one reason I don’t think Hillary Clinton will pick him. You don’t want a VP that outshines the presidential candidate too much and that would be the case with Booker.
” . . . the end of an eight year Clinton term.”
From your lips to Satan’s armpit. The only upside to this election is any candidate is likely to serve only four years. There is no reason to suggest otherwise than malicious inflection of emotional pain.
“The only upside to this election is any candidate is likely to serve only four years.”
Yes, but SCOTUS goes on almost forever.
If Supreme Court justices went on forever we wouldn’t be having the spitting contest that’s presently in progress. Think of it. Weekend at Antonin’s. Now there’s a thought.
The White House in control of one party for sixteen years would be something we haven’t seen since the beginning of the Republic when Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe to keep the Democratic-Republican Party in control of the White House from 1801 through 1825 or 1933 to 1953 when FDR and Truman combined to hold the office for five terms. However, the presumption is generally in favor of incumbents being re-elected so we should at least prepare ourselves for eight years of President Clinton, Part II or, god help us, President Trump.
The exception to that rule so far has been presidents. If it weren’t an exception, George H. W. Bush would have been re-elected and we would never have experienced our long, recurring national nightmare. And George W. Bush probably would not have been elected.
Doug,
Republicans won 4 or more straight elections twice before (1860 – 1880 for 6 straight, and even if you remove Andrew Johnson succeeding Lincoln as a former Democrat, they won 4 straight from 1868 – 1880) and 1896-1908.
Jim Webb is the obvious choice for Trump.
And I give Julian Castro almost as big a chance as being President this time next year as I give Hillary, whose chances erode steadily.
Since Webb would have been my preferred candidate, I wouldn’t mind him as VP. I’m still skeptical that fits in with Trump’s campaign strategy. Assuming there is one, that is.
I still don’t think it’s sunk in yet how lousy a candidate Sec. Clinton is. I keep reading things claiming that Bernie Sanders is fostering dissension within Democratic ranks. I don’t think he’s fostering it. I think he’s revealing it.
Trump is populist, nativist, white. Also unconventional and doesn’t really fit into either party. That sounds a lot like Jim Webb to me.
I think Castro will be the Veep nominee. They’re desperately going to need youth to balance the ticket (Hillary has ancient stateswoman all locked up, and Dems traditionally hate old candidates), he’ll allegedly energize the illegal alien vote, he’s a sip to the Whiter People that need some non-threatening color on the ticket to feel good about themselves, he won’t outshine the presidential candidate, and they’re grooming him to be
figureheadPresident anyway. And let’s face it, Veep is the best job he’s qualified for.The reason I think he might end up President is that I can see Hillary winning but then having her health or legal situation collapse almost immediately. It’ll be fun having a president who’s prior experience largely consists of ribbon cutting and unsuccessfully trying to learn Spanish from Rosetta Stone.
A sop, not a sip. Stupid friggin’ auto correct…..
Careful inspection of the principals informs me that Mr. Garner might today shift his description, family content standards notwithstanding, ……… to the past few presidents, and the current presumptive nominees.