One of the things that struck me about Danielle DiMartino Booth’s analysis at Bloomberg of the employment situation for February was this statement:
On a more fundamental level, what are the odds that the demand for labor is sustained? In February, the construction sector added 61,000 jobs, the biggest increase in 11 years. Over the last four months alone, it has added 185,000 new jobs.
A warming trend after a brutally cold January probably played a part.
If that were the case the strongest hiring would have taken place where the cold was most severe or at least where the cold was most extraordinary. Does she have evidence of that? If so, she should produce it—it’s not in the BLS’s Employment Situation Report.
If it’s not the case she may be obscuring by assumptions what is actually an even bigger story. Youth wants to know.
Never have understood the fuss over monthly reports, unless they are really off the norm. Long term matters.
Steve
February’s really was “off the norm”. Almost twice as many new jobs as forecast and significantly more than we’ve seen since 2011:
Two stories that caught my eye
1) Japan is showing how much more spare labor capacity can be found if necessary https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/japans-unemployment-rate-drops-to-uncharted-territory/
2) on how it will all end in tears https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/in-trump-country-the-stock-bulls-are-freaking-out-their-brokers
Big ad in today’s classifieds looking for coal miners, experienced positions and for newbies.
Went back and looked at the actual BLS numbers. We had higher numbers twice in 2016 and at least once in 2015. Your 200,000 average cited above is composed of widely varying individual months.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ceshighlights.pdf
Steve
Pro tip: February is generally one of the highest months of the year because of the way the BLS keeps track. I posted on this at some length some years ago. I was reacting more to the difference from prediction than the absolute number.