The House Democrats have produced their articles of impeachment. Rather than diving into analysis, let’s just ask some questions. Presumably, there will be a brief sojourn in the House Judiciary Committee and then they will go to the floor. What happens next?
- The articles of impeachment will be voted down in the House.
- The articles of impeachment will be approved in the House by a bipartisan majority.
- The articles of impeachment will be approved in the House in an essentially party line vote.
and then, assuming that the articles of impeachment will be approved in the House:
- They will just be dismissed without trial in the Senate.
- After a trial in the Senate, the Senate will vote to convict.
- After a brief trial in the Senate, Trump will be found not guilty by the Senate by a bipartisan vote.
- After a brief trial in the Senate, Trump will be found not guilty by an essentially party line vote.
- After a lengthy trial (going at least past Super Tuesday) in the Senate, Trump will be found not guilty by the Senate by a bipartisan vote.
- After a lengthy trial (going at least past Super Tuesday) in the Senate, Trump will be found not guilty by an essentially party line vote.
What will be the net outcome, assuming that the articles of impeachment are passed by the House and Trump is found not guilty by the Senate:
- Whoever the Democratic presidential candidate ultimately is, he or she will be elected in 2020, Democrats will hold the House and take the Senate.
- Whoever the Democratic presidential candidate ultimately is, he or she will be elected in 2020, Democrats will hold the House, Republicans will hold the Senate.
- Whoever the Democratic presidential candidate ultimately is, he or she will be elected in 2020, Democrats will lose the House, Republicans will hold the Senate.
- Whoever the Democratic presidential candidate ultimately is, he or she will be defeated in 2020, Democrats will hold the House, Republicans will hold the Senate.
- Whoever the Democratic presidential candidate ultimately is, he or she will be defeated in 2020, Democrats will lose the House, Republicans will hold the Senate.
- Other
I think the greatest likelihoods are C-F-E with the second greatest likelihood C-E-E (bipartisan defined as two or more Democratic votes to acquit). Nancy Pelosi will keep her caucus together but lose the majority.
If by some quirk of fate C is the net outcome, expect articles of impeachment within two weeks of inauguration.
The prospect of this thing going on past Super Tuesday is depressing. I haven’t paid hardly any attention to the House proceedings beyond reading headlines in the local paper and making hearing a little NPR in the car before I change the channel. I’m not sure how they could have spent so much time to reach a conclusion based upon a story that I think we mostly knew from the start?
I don’t see how this does not lead to a Senate hearing as to whether an investigation of the Bidens had any basis with potentially decisive implications on the Democratic primaries. And I’m suggesting Biden becomes so damaged he can’t win the election, just that uncertainties arise that push a chunk of his support to their second option. And their second option may not be that good. I assume this is the Bloomberg gambit.
C (House impeaches on abuse of power only), but a non-zero chance that the House votes to reprimand Trump instead.
E (lengthy Senate trial), but I think more likely something similar to the Clinton timeline: January 7 to February 12.
B Hard for me to imagine Trump getting re-elected, but stronger possibility that I would have thought a year ago. I’m not sure that many House Democratic seats are vulnerable to a Trumpian backlash.
1. C. IMO Pelosi has enough votes to pass the laughable excuses for impeachment articles (intentionally made so bogus as a sop the Squad, which didn’t work as they predictably have erupted in rage at their inanity) without endangering vulnerable Democratic reps. Won’t work.
2. A. Virtually no one in the Senate wants witnesses or discovery to occur for fear of exposing decades-old bipartisan corruption. They know Trump has the goods on them.
3. E. Democratic leaders have enough time between now and next November to throw at least one more manufactured turd (maybe two) at Trump’s greasy hide hoping THIS time it will stick and take him out. They’ll continue to fail, which will make it even more difficult for them to retain the House.
(D) all R vote against, more then 2, less then 6 D vote against. Bipartisan against, but majority for
(D) all R and Manchin vote to acquit
(F) Unknowable because factors most relevant to re-election or defeat for Trump are still in the future – i.e the economy next summer, is the US at war, possible terrorist attacks or crisis at the border.
I predict Democrats will have a smaller majority in the House and Republicans will have a smaller majority in the Senate.