We’ve been going through a period in which the opinion pieces published in the major media outlets and online have been particularly tedious. In the absence of something to react to I thought I’d give some quick takes on major stories in the news. First off: Ukraine, undoubtedly the biggest story now as it has been for most of the last year.
We know that Russia hasn’t won outright and we know that Ukraine hasn’t won outright. What else do we know? Other than that we’re being deluged with propaganda by both sides. I think we can say with confidence that the Russians are continuing to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure. I think we can say that the United States and our European allies are continuing to provide arms to the Ukrainians.
I think that’s about it. I don’t think there’s much else we can say with confidence.
I would add that what is being said publicly about negotiated resolutions isn’t ever going to reflect all of what is being said behind closed doors. Somewhat disappointed about Robert Wright’s piece in WaPo this week that seems to assume the absence and denial of negotiations means there are none, or that U.S. isn’t privately asserting limitations or positions different from Ukraine’s. We just don’t know.
Also, Ukraine publicly offered to set the Crimea issue aside to be resolved in 15 years. This seems to be pretty flagrantly a willingness to concede Crimea in a face-saving way. How will the Crimea situation differ in 15 years?
Yup.
Sounds like Ukraine tried to attack some Russian air bases in Russia.
Steve
We are back to attritional warfare. I think the strategic lynchpin in this conflict will come down to that. On the Ukrainian side, it depends on how long and to what extent the west continues to assist Ukraine. On the Russian side, it depends on how effectively Russia can avoid sanctions and supply it’s forces from domestic production and its short list of allies.
I think that one of two things is happening or even possibly both. I think the Ukrainians are trying to bolster the case for more aid, particularly in the form of weapons with a longer reach, something the West has been reluctant to furnish. But it’s also possible that they’re trying to attract a Russian counter to shore up Western support that may be becoming wobbly.