What’s Going On in Iran?

I’m having a bit of difficulty in reading what is going on in Iran right now. Consider this report from Deutsche-Welle:

In an interview conducted in the context of an oral history project and leaked to international media, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reveals deep rifts in Iran’s leadership. Hesamoddin Ashena, an aide to President Hassan Rouhani, who oversaw the oral history project, to document the administration’s work, was fired on Thursday.

In the recording, which was published by two Persian-language media outlets based in London, Zarif is heard criticizing Iran’s political system and taking aim at the Revolutionary Guard, which he accuses of constantly interfering in the Foreign Ministry’s affairs.

Zarif says the state security organization is undermining his work. He also lashes out against General Qassem Soleimani, who commanded the Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force until his assassination by US airstrike near Baghdad’s airport in January 2020.

Who leaked it, what are their motives, and what does it all mean? Is it

  • anti-Western
  • anti-Russian
  • anti-IRG

or is it just jockeying for power prior to elections? It could be just a response to stress. Iran is under a lot of it right now.

Unlike some I don’t think that Iran and Russia are natural allies. Quite the opposite if anything. And I actually have no idea how Iran’s leaders plan to reconcile their increasingly cozy relationship with China, China’s treatment of its Uyghur people, and Iran’s vying for leadership within the Islamic world.

Similarly with Saudi Arabia. Other than declining U. S. influence in the region what does Iran and Saudi Arabia cozying up portend? It makes me feel as though something bad were about to happen. Much the way a friendly meeting between the Gambino and Lucchese families would.

6 comments… add one
  • bob sykes Link

    Iran, Russia, and China would seem to have very little in common, but they all have one very important thing. Our Ruling Elite hates them, and it has adopted an extremely aggressive stance against each of them, including numerous sanctions. That by itself would bind them together. But on the plus side, China’s BRI/OBOR will benefit each of them a very great deal, Iran especially, and that serves to make them collaborators, if not friends.

    During the Cold War, the US was in bed with every dictator it could find. The only common bond was fear of communism.

  • Iran, Russia, and China would seem to have very little in common

    Saying they have “little in common” is an understatement. They’re competitors. Soviet Russia occupied parts of Iran during World War II, occupy territory the Chinese probably consider theirs now, and parts of Mongolia in the period shortly after the October Revolution. At this point the Mongolians maintain a fairly close relationship with Russia out of fear of Chinese ambitions.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    It’s likely John Kerry has given them assurances that the sanctions will end in return for future promises. Susan Rice is for capitulation and she has influence as does Iranian born Valerie Jarrett.

  • bob sykes Link

    Talks between Iran and the US are still underway in Vienna. The Iranians believe the sanctions will be lifted, but Jack Sullivan said today that no agreements have been reached.

    The Iranians have repeatedly said that they will not return to the original restrictions on their nuclear programs unless the US raises all its sanctions. Apparently, the US is negotiating some face-saving language.

  • Andy Link

    Iran has domestic politics!

  • Who knew?

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