Can someone explain to me what’s going on in Germany with respect to COVID-19? At their present pace they’ll catch up with our (bad) statistics pretty quickly.
Can someone explain to me what’s going on in Germany with respect to COVID-19? At their present pace they’ll catch up with our (bad) statistics pretty quickly.
As I’ve pointed out since earliest days, there is so much we don’t know. And public policy has ranged from pure guessing, to largely ineffective or detrimental, to cynically political to bureaucratically arrogant. A pox on them all.
Not sure, but I think its curious that vaccination rates in Europe follow a West to East cline. Vaccination rates, including partial:
Portugal (89%); Spain (82%); Italy (78%)
Iceland (83%); Norway (77%); Sweden (72%)
Ireland (77%); UK (74%); Germany (70%); Poland (55%)
United States (69%)
Trust. The more you trust your government (healthcare system, etc.) the more likely you are to get vaccinated. Countries with lower trust: Sweden (after becoming less homogeneous), UK, Germany, Poland. Germany actually surprises me a bit.
Some observations.
(A) Seasonal; its pretty obvious the spikes are following winter weather as it moves from Siberia (Russia) to Eastern Europe, to Central Europe and now Western Europe.
Similarly, the US is seeing a surge originating in the Northern MidWest (Minnesota) and Northeast (Maine, Vermont) and slowly heading South.
(B) mRNA vaccines wearing off after 6 months.
If you pull a chart of # of vaccinations against time, you find most countries have an S-curve. Compare 3 countries, US, Germany and Japan. The US hit the sweet spot in the curve (doing a lot of vaccinations) starting in Feb. Germany hit the sweet spot in April. A 2 month difference. Japan hit the sweet spot in June.
The US saw a surge in August (6 months later, partly contributed by waning of vaccines). Its not a coincidence that Germany is seeing a surge 3 months after the US did. Japan is not seeing any surge in cases (they haven’t reached 6 months yet).
(C) Germany isn’t really an outlier. The Pacific Northwest (WA, Oregon) like Germany did very well during the pandemic, had a vaccination rate that was pretty decent, and yet got their worse wave after lifting restrictions post vaccinations.
It is important to put things in perspective. If Germany’s experience is like the Pacific Northwest — even this wave won’t be as bad as the hard hit places in the initial wave or the wave last winter.
As best I can tell close proximity in enclosed spaces is the number one determinant in spread. Not surprising. See: NYC subway system or nursing homes. See: the common cold.
Doc Taylor at OTB was having a good time in Aug-Sept giving DeSantis the devil for the case rate rise. AL and SC saw the same. Well, its hot as hell then and people were inside in air conditioning. It was their “winter.†Now? People are unmasked, packed to the gills in public spaces, and very low case rates. Doc Taylor doesn’t write about it anymore…….
Just a few comments, first, trust in the government is a factor (after three months of wrangling they now have a new government), another might be the German tendency to seek care from quacks (e.g. the glandular therapy many older males seek from French clinics) and consider the fact while smoking is banned in some places, the gasthaus is generally exempt due to massive non compliance when they tried to.
For course, there’s the usual whipping boy of social media, American interference, etc.
“mRNA vaccines wearing off after 6 months”
Not to pick nits. but isn’t it the immune response that wears off?
Suggesting that the mRNA vaccine stimulates an insufficient response?
Suggesting it could be improved?
Or that the viral mutations will be the gift that keeps on giving for drug companies.