What the Economic Models Say

The Hill reports that two of three economic models of the outcome of presidential elections, the Fair Model, the Abramowitz model, and Moody’s model, both predict that the Republican candidate is likely to prevail whoever that candidate may be:

Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades.

A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating.

The three models are being challenged like never before by the presence of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump, whose campaign has shaken up politics.
Trump’s fights with Ted Cruz and his other GOP rivals have electrified his supporters but have turned off other voters. A Washington Post-ABC poll last week found that 67 percent of registered voters held an unfavorable view of the outspoken billionaire. That has given hope to Democrats that even with a weakened Hillary Clinton as their nominee, their party could cruise to victory.

I’ve written about Ray Fair’s model before. His model has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1916 with the exception of 2012.

As I written before, I think that this election will be exceptional and appeals to reason or experience or even polling data may well not be relevant. There appears to be an angry electorate out there and I doubt that the outcome of the primaries will appease them.

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    His model has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1916 with the exception of 2012.

    Obama’s re-election was really oddball, as we covered at the time. Looking at the Trump candidacy this year, I’d say that the Republicans went out of their way in 2012 to run a campaign designed to turn off their own voters. This year the Republican Party honchos want to reprise that with a Paul Ryan run, because clearly the voters want a platform of tax cuts for hedge fund managers, cuts to social welfare programs, amnesty and tripled legal immigration. Sure they’re all losers individually, but they’ll make it up on volume!

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