Doyle McManus complains about the failure of U. S. foreign policy in Syria:
In 2011, the U.S. ambassador to Syria, a mild-mannered diplomat named Robert S. Ford, became the face of American support for the Arab Spring when he boldly visited opponents to the brutal regime of Bashar Assad in the northern city of Hama.
In 2014, Ford quit, saying he could not defend the Obama administration’s inconstant support for Syrian rebels. “More hesitation … [will] simply hasten the day when American forces have to intervene against Al Qaeda in Syria,†he warned.
Now, a year later, Ford’s warning has come true. U.S. warplanes bomb jihadists in Syria week after week. Northern Syria has become a base for both Islamic State, which invaded Iraq last year, and an Al Qaeda franchise that trains European terrorists.
But Ford thinks U.S. policy has moved backward, not forward. “We’re seeing Syria divide into four countries,†he told me last week. “and I’m not sure it can be put back together.â€
It’s the most conspicuous failure of U.S. foreign policy today. The Assad regime that President Obama declared dead remains in power, and roughly half its territory is held by jihadists. The moderates the U.S. said it would support are mostly scattered and defeated.
Okay, I’ll bite. What is America’s foreign policy in the Middle East? As best as I can tell for the last 14 years America’s foreign policy in the region has been regime change and it has preponderantly been successful. Since 2001 the governments of Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen have fallen (arguably Pakistan as well). The troublesome governments of Syria, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Iran remain.
IMO the policy has been reckless and foolhardy. what is Mr. McManus’s complaint? That it hasn’t been foolhardy and reckless enough?
If it was regime change, then we really only get credit for Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. The others were changed by the peoples of those countries (all with longstanding tensions) and we may or may not have been able to stop them or abet them. I think we would have to say that we have really not had an overarching policy, just reactions to events.
Just to put it in context, how would you describe our policy in this area in the past? During the Cold War it seems like our policy was oppose the USSR at all costs and keep the oil coming in. After the USSR fell it was benign neglect, plus support Israel. After Desert Storm, contain Hussein, and support Israel. Now, react, and support Israel.
Steve
Who needs to do anything when the regimes are falling without being pushed by you?
I think that in the past our policy had two prongs: a bidding war against the Soviet Union and stability. It’s been in disarray since about 1980.
Steve,
We get credit for Egypt too – we forced Mubarak out.
Col. Lang had a Foreign Policy article he references in this post: Pogo revisited – re-published 24 January 2015. It was from 2007(?), and it is almost all you need to know.
Most of these “countries” are nothing more than tribes, clans, sects, principalities, fiefdoms, etc., and they are only a single entity because there is a single person(s) forcing everybody to play nice. This is usually for the benefit of this person(s).
Europe was no different, but they fought for hundreds of years amongst themselves to workout the winners. The losers were enslaved or slaughtered, and their land and property was confiscated. The national shared culture of the European countries is the result of purging the others.
I tend to forget that most people do not understand Russian history. Russia is a conglomeration of multiple people and cultures. The northwestern portion was homogenized, but the rest is still disparate. The foot of the Czar was what kept the place together.
In order for Iraq to be a nation in the European model, there will need to be much blood spilt. Rather than stopping the bloodshed, we should encourage. As soon as the purges are complete, the peace process can begin, or there will be a strongman ruling a lot of factions.
Can I just skip the post based on the man’s name being Doyle McManus?