The video embedded above is a recent talk given by John Mearsheimer. It’s lengthy.
In it he makes several points:
- No meaningful negotiations are possible since both the Russians and Ukrainians see the war as existential.
- The Ukrainians can’t win.
- The Russians aren’t interested in conquering all of Ukraine and incorporating it into Russia.
- The Russians will seize more formerly Ukrainian territory, leaving a dysfunctional rump state in eastern Ukraine.
I don’t believe that’s either what he or I want to happen but in all likelihood it’s what will happen.