On the website of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo, Peter Tarlie has an interesting white paper that, essentially, makes two points:
- The stock market was in a bubble in 2017-2018; and
- The bubble is bursting.
Assume he’s right. Whatever breast-beating there has been about public pensions to date, you ain’t seen nothing yet. If this is start of a prolonged bear market, quite a number of city and county governments will go bankrupt. May even a state. Maybe even Illinois.