What Do I Think Should Happen?

I thought I’d express my views on what I think should happen respecting Ukraine.

  • I do not think that Russia should invade Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign state and a member of the United Nations. Invading Ukraine without UN authorization would violate Russia’s obligations as a signatory of the charter. That, as a veto-wielding Security Council member, Russia will never be criticized by the Security Council for such an invasion is irrelevant.
  • I do not think that Ukraine should be admitted to NATO and, indeed, I think that discussions of Ukraine’s joining NATO are needlessly antagonistic towards Russia. Turn the question around. Is defending Ukraine in the case of invasion in the U. S. interest? Obviously not. Or France’s or the United Kingdom’s? Or Germany’s? If you do not think that defending the Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion is in the U. S. interest, you don’t think that Ukraine should be a member of NATO either. The two matters are equivalent.
  • I think the last country admitted to NATO should have been Spain and have thought so all along but that ship has sailed.
  • I don’t think we should withdraw any forces presently in former Warsaw Pact countries but I don’t think we should add any, either. I don’t think we should give any of those countries nuclear weapons or install nuclear weapons of our own in them.
  • I don’t think there’s anything we can or should do in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. I don’t think that increased economic sanctions on Russia would have much effect but I also think that Germany is not being particularly helpful in its relations with Russia.
  • I suspect that Russia will not invade Ukraine but there will be lots of various other forms of coercion and 4GW.
  • I think we should stop taking foreign policy advice regarding our Russia policy from Polish and Ukrainian nationals.
2 comments… add one
  • bob sykes Link

    You might be old enough to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. The US was willing to go to war with Russia if Russia put medium range missiles in Cuba. The US had already put such missiles in Turkey. Petty legalisms like Ukraine is a member of the UN, and Russia is a signatory to the Charter do not apply in big power standoffs.

    Russia regards Ukraine in NATO as an existential threat, and if Ukraine eventually becomes a NATO member, Russia will at least destroy Ukraine’s civilian and military leadership. It does not need to invade Ukraine to do that. By the way, in an interview last week Stoltenberg revealed that the NATO members had already voted to admit both Ukraine and Georgia, but no date had yet been set. The war will begin when and if the date is set.

    One way to express their disapproval of NATO’s actions would be for the Russians to develop some bases in the America’s, say Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Granada. China is looking to expand its naval presence, and it might join in such an endeavor. Building Russo-Chinese bases would of course spark a major confrontation.

    Rumors are that Russia and Chinese might make a major joint announcement during or after the Winter Olympics. Betting is on a mutual defense treaty. If rumors prove true, that would put China in the Ukrainian/Georgian confrontation, and Russia in the Taiwan confrontation.

    We might not get a major war, but a new Cold War and a new Wall across Europe might be in the near future.

  • You might be old enough to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    Old enough? You flatter me. I remember it vividly.

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