What Could Possibly Explain It?

The Economist wonders what could possibly explain the surge of nationalist feeling, not just in the United States but in much of the developed world?

It is troubling, then, how many countries are shifting from the universal, civic nationalism towards the blood-and-soil, ethnic sort. As positive patriotism warps into negative nationalism, solidarity is mutating into distrust of minorities, who are present in growing numbers (see chart 1). A benign love of one’s country—the spirit that impels Americans to salute the Stars and Stripes, Nigerians to cheer the Super Eagles and Britons to buy Duchess of Cambridge teacups—is being replaced by an urge to look on the world with mistrust.

Happily, they also provide an explanation in the form of the graph above. Another factor, not considered by The Economist, is that the new waves of immigrants may not feel the same pressures to adopt the language, customs, and manners of their new homes as immigrants did in the past. They may not even look at them as their homes. Skype and Facebook keep their connections to the Old Country firm and bright.

Some of the new immigrants, like Germany’s and Sweden’s new guests, may feel an affirmative obligation to transform their foster countries rather than be transformed by them.

From my perspective Sweden and Germany are late-comers. In 1960 4% of the American population was Hispanic. Today 16% is. That’s an enormous change over a relatively short period of time.

I don’t think we can or should turn back the clock. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the deplorables, Hispanics, and blacks link arms and say “this far and no farther”.

Let me put it this way. Right now our foreign born population comprises its highest percentage in nearly a century and possibly ever. Under the circumstances which do you think is most likely. We will accept (as a proportion of population)

1. A lot fewer immigrants than we have over the last 30 years.
2. Slightly fewer immigrants than we have over the last 30 years.
3. About the same proportion of immigrants as we have over the last 30 years.
4. Slightly more immigrants than we have over the last 30 years.
5. A lot more immigrants than we have over the last 30 years.

I think the answer is B for demographic, social, and political reasons. I think that Germany’s answer is very likely to be E.