What Are the Odds?

The Gallup organization has taken a poll of Americans’ beliefs about the risk of hospitalization due to COVID-19:

The American public’s understanding of the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines may have been put to the test in recent weeks as national public health leaders openly debated whether a booster shot is needed for the general population. Meanwhile, a large gap in vaccination rates persists between Democrats and Republicans, possibly reflecting partisans’ different views on the relative risks of COVID-19 versus the vaccines.

In August, Gallup surveyed over 3,000 U.S. adults on their understanding of the likelihood of hospitalization after contracting COVID-19 among those who have versus have not been vaccinated. The results show that most Americans overstate the risk of hospitalization for both groups: 92% overstate the risk that unvaccinated people will be hospitalized, and 62% overstate the risk for vaccinated people. At the same time, U.S. adults are fairly accurate at estimating the effectiveness of vaccines at preventing hospitalization, with the median respondent putting it at 80%.

Democrats provide much higher and more accurate vaccine efficacy estimates than Republicans (88% vs. 50%), and unvaccinated Republicans have a median vaccine efficacy of 0%, compared with 73% for vaccinated Republicans. The results suggest that the low vaccine uptake among Republicans may be driven, at least in part, by an inaccurate understanding of the published data on vaccine effectiveness

which I found completely unsurprising. Just for the record the answers I gave to the questions they were asking were factually accurate which places me in a distinct minority among Americans.

There was one thing that I found pretty amusing—the self-reported vaccination rates which I think prove more than anything else that people lie to poll takers.

6 comments… add one
  • Grey Shambler Link

    Dave, I know you have many varied interests, so I wonder if you are familiar with the Big band sound of The Bobby Layne Orchestra.
    The band was formed in 1954 by a man named Gene Benes, and continued actively until about a year ago. Gene is in his mid eighties now and spent five weeks in the hospital with COVID19. He is currently in hospice.
    You see, there is no one named Bobby Layne, that’s Gene.
    He’s also a grain farmer and I’ve had the pleasure of working for him for the last four years during harvest season as a driver.
    Great guy, helluva life.

  • bob sykes Link

    There was a Bobby Layne football player, a quarterback for U. Texas and the Chicago Bears, New York Bulldogs, Detroit Lions, and Pittsburgh Steelers from 1948 to1962:


    I don’t think I ever heard of the band, but then I’m not a polka fan, aside from Weird Al Yankovich.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    Time frame is right, I’ll ask one of his sons if that’s why he picked that name.

  • jan Link

    “The results suggest that the low vaccine uptake among Republicans may be driven, at least in part, by an inaccurate understanding of the published data on vaccine effectiveness.”

    ..or maybe it’s because people’s view of these vaccines are tied into information not shared with the public. Mirroring the hysterics of Fauci and the erratic stances of the CDC, are the many vaccine warnings given by physicians/scientists signing on to the Barrington Declaration, frontline doctors group, the recent international meeting in Rome, with doctors from all over the world, calling into question the bureaucratic/media-pushed data and protocols providing the footing for authoritarian mandates and endless booster shots. Front line whistleblowers have been silenced. Any media reference to the VAERS cite is minimal, even when it only represents 10% of actual adverse reactions to the vaccines. The lack of informed consent and a true evaluation of the risks involved in taking these vaccines is beyond belief!

  • steve Link

    1) Very few people signed on to the Barrington Declaration. They advocated for letting your people get covid to build herd immunity while protecting older people. They did not say how they would protect older people and as it turned out not many people were very good at it. So if our solution involves some magical step which no one can accomplish, then the Barrington Declaration made sense.

    2) Frontline doctors? Piece below is copied about one of their docs, who tells you about the quality of docs in the group. One was an unlicensed, non practicing ophthalmologist. Out of all of them there was evidence that maybe one had cared for Covid pts. (BTW, the reptilians refers to the shape shifter conspiracy theory, which on an international basis is the 4th most believed conspiracy theory when it looked it up a few years ago.)

    “Immanuel, a pediatrician and a religious minister, has a history of making bizarre claims about medical topics and other issues. She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

    She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious. And, despite appearing in Washington, D.C. to lobby Congress on Monday, she has said that the government is run in part not by humans but by “reptilians” and other aliens.

    Immanuel gave her viral speech on the steps of the Supreme Court at the “White Coat Summit,” a gathering of a handful of doctors who call themselves America’s Frontline Doctors and dispute the medical consensus on the novel coronavirus. The event was organized by the right-wing group Tea Party Patriots, which is backed by wealthy Republican donors.”

    3) VAERS? Researchers have used VAERS for years. It has lots of known problems. What is notable is that the long term anti-vaxxers, the ones who claim vaccines cause autism, etc, use the same tactics and make the same false claims as those who are covid anti-vaxxers.

    People have received, globally, about 4 billion vaccinations. We have a pretty good idea about the risks.


  • Grey Shambler Link

    “gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.”
    That one is true.
    It’s why I sleep with my jammies on.

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