NPR’s Domenico Montanaro draws six conclusions from the Nevada caucuses which Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders won handily:
- Sanders expands his base
Here’s a telling quote:
“In Nevada,” Sanders said, “we have just put together a multigenerational, multiracial coalition that is not only going to win in Nevada, it’s going to sweep this country.”
- Biden lives to fight another day
The South Carolina primary is make or break for Biden. He remains the candidate most likely to secure a majority of black voters and black voters remain the most important constituency for the Democratic Party. Under the circumstances you might wonder why there aren’t more black Representatives and Senators. Me, too.
- The moderates gambled—and are losing—on opposing Medicare for All
Here’s another telling quote:
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who finished third in Nevada, said something Saturday that moderates should take note of.
It came immediately after accusing Sanders of believing in “an inflexible ideological revolution that leaves out most Democrats, not to mention most Americans.”
That’s materially what Rahm Emanuel has been saying, too. To date unions, another important Democratic constituency, have opposed Medicare for All. Will that change? As I see it the Medicare for All plan that can pass won’t work and the one that can work won’t pass.
- Expect a forceful Warren at Tuesday’s debate
- Republicans were thrilled with the result — and lack of (fast) results
- Caucuses may very well be doomed
I think that’s right. I’m surprised they’ve lasted this long.
At this point the mathematics of the primaries looks like this. Delegates are awarded proportionally, based on the percentage of votes a candidate receives. Sanders can anticipate receiving from 25% of 40%, depending on how many votes Elizabeth Warren siphons away from him, and, due to the very concentrated schedule of primaries, she’s likely to remain in the race until Super Tuesday (March 3) at which point 60% of the delegates will have been awarded. Sanders may even win a majority of delegates in some primaries outright but, the longer that Warren, Buttigieg, Steyer, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg remain in the race the less likely it is that he’ll come into the convention with a majority of delegates.
