In her latest Wall Street Journal column Peggy Noonan outlines the risks that we face from November through January:
“Postelection through to the inauguration, we have a real danger zone,†says Larry Sabato, the great veteran director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
There will be charges and countercharges, rumors, legal challenges. There will be stories—“My cousin saw with her own eyes bags of votes being thrown in the Ohio River.†Most dangerously there will be conspiracy theories, fed by a frenzied internet.
Let’s make the picture darker, to deepen the point. What many people will fear in such an atmosphere is the possibility of violence. We’ve just been through a round of street violence this summer. It is not beyond imagining that in a tense national environment we would see it again. Maybe it will be Black Lives Matter and antifa versus white nationalists and QAnon. Maybe it will include honestly enraged citizens who believe their side was wronged.
The extreme edges of both parties are punching above their weight against their respective centers right now. They will be a source of pressure for their candidates not to concede, no matter what the results.
All this would only further undermine America’s morale, giving us all the impression of profound national deterioration. It would subvert the democratic process and tarnish our reputation in the world.
The Electoral College meets Dec. 14. There, Mr. Sabato notes, it’s possible there could be a 269-269 tie. There is also the issue of so-called faithless electors, who could deny the winning candidate a majority. In either case, the election would be thrown to the House, where people may be surprised by the rules. They assume that if the Democrats have a majority, as is expected, the House would vote Democratic. But the House would vote not by individual member but by state delegation. There, in the current Congress, the Republicans have an edge.
What a crisis—including a constitutional crisis—may be coming down the pike.
Let’s consider some of the questions we have before us:
- As of the tabulation of the results following the closing of the polls on November 3, which candidate will have the greater number of votes?
- As of certified results one week later, which candidate will have the greater number of votes?
- As of certified results a month after that on December 14 (when the electors meet), which candidate will have the greater number of votes?
- Will all of the states have certified their election results as of December 14?
- Will either Donald Trump or Joe Biden concede the election under any circumstances?
- What happens if either candidate dies before December 14? I believe that would free his electors to vote for whomever they cared to, the running mate or, indeed, any other candidate.
- What happens if the president-elect dies between December 14 and inauguration? My opinion is that the consequence of that would be decided by the Supreme Court. The Constitution including the amendments governing succession does not address that contingency. They could even order a mulligan.
- Will there be election day violence? Or in the days that follow? I think the likelihood approaches certainty.
I have no idea who will win the most popular votes on election day or thereafter. Just about anything could happen.
We should be thinking about this now.
We don’t need more fear right now but I am afraid protracted uncertainty Combined with a rising winter Covid-19 death rate would put the economy into a defensive tailspin.
One that neither political party has the right person at the top to
provide confidence to lead us out of.
A real economic depression is a possibility.
Protracted uncertainty is the point. The longer it goes on, the more gamesmanship there will be and the more calls to get it over with in favor of Trump or Harris regardless of facts on the ground. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has recently decided that despite the very clear language of the voting laws mail-in votes can now be counted up to three days after the election and a legible postmark on the envelope isn’t necessary. There will be strong temptation to count mail-in ballots that would normally be tossed. We will see multiple precincts with vote totals in excess of registered voters. We will see challenges, counterchallenges, and voting certifications and totals determined in a extremely partisan fashion. It will be Florida 2000 or the Reconstruction South 1876 nationwide. I can very much see two Inaugurations being held simultaneously, protected by elements of the armed forces, SS, and US Marshals loyal to particular candidates. I don’t see a Harris landslide at all. At very best a Harris squeaker, or more likely a OMB election day landslide nibbled away to a minimal win by continual driblets and bomblets of ‘found’ votes showing up in convenient precincts, aided by continual injunctions supporting them being added tot he vote long after Election Day. I don’t see where the NeverTrump gamers worked out a scenario where Trump wins the popular vote decisively but loses the electoral college by questionable totals in certain states. In which case the Democrats would have to do a 180 and vehemently defend the EC that they wanted to trash ever since 2016.
Re G. The 20th amendment deals with the scenario from when Congress counts the electoral votes (Jan 3) until Inauguration Day.
The amendment would somewhat cover from Dec 14 until Jan 3 because it gives Congress plenary power to deal with any election where a candidate who received electoral votes died but before they are counted and become President elect.
I continue to be somewhat less alarmed.
According to RCP, Biden has something north of 300 electoral votes and a outside the margin error lead in battleground states. Don’t trust the polls?
You’re right; the 20th Amendment cover that contingency.
No, I don’t. Not only are they skewed in multiple ways, there’s just no predicting what will happen under the actual circumstances that obtain with 50% or more of the vote coming in by mail. It could happen that 10% of the mail-in vote is disqualified for one reason or another and most of those will be Biden votes.
Don’t trust the polls?
Clear that speaker Pelosi does, hence her intransigence in agreeing to a lower price tag for coronavirus relief. She’s sure of her strength come January 20th. The states will either get their trillion, or the New Party Democratic juggernaut will renege in favor of reparations or a green new deal or whatever strikes their fancy after they have the votes they need.
Only poll that matters is Election Day.
With that out of the way, nothing wrong with taking standard disaster prep steps, (extra food and water, keeping the car gassed up, etc) and use social media for what its intended, cat pictures, cookie recipes and the like. Also suggested is learning how the perfect martini can disassociate the front lobes from the limbic system.
We will muddle thru all this winding up looking a bit like the rest of the world while mass demonstrations/riots are perennial.
@Tarstarkas, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision is not the final word. There is a pending federal court case in which the judge abstained from moving forward in resolving the federal claims to allow the state courts to resolve unsettled issues in interpreting state law.
I think there will be a layer of federal court review, focused on when and under what circumstances election rules can be changed. The optimal non-banana republic ideal is that rules are based upon laws passed in advance of an election.
I think the potential for actual unrest and a crisis is significant, which is why I’m hoping, more than anything else, that one side or the other decisively and incontrovertibly wins.
PD Shaw: the PA Supremes apparently have held that mail-in ballots whose signatures do not match those on file still be counted. Hopefully THAT will be looked at by the Feds before election day, or my 100%+ votes vs registration could easily become commonplace in the state.
Well; I didn’t expect that on a Friday night. A short handed Supreme Court is a problem.
But I think it makes it more likely Biden will win by a convincing margin.