At RealClearWorld Dylan Loh says that Chinese President Xi has been upstaged by events on the Korean peninsula:
The latest nuclear test was conducted just as Xi was busy hosting a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations conference in Xiamen. This was supposed to be the latest feather in Xi’s cap, a chance to show off his diplomatic finesse after resolving the Doklam border dispute with India just before the summit. But then came the nuclear test, and the attention Xi dearly wanted immediately evaporated.
This act of upstaging is a serious matter. The importance of the BRICS summit should not be understated; this was the last major international event for Xi before the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, China’s most important domestic political event, which kicks off on October 18.
Unlike the standard agenda of previous meetings, this year’s national congress is immensely personally important to Xi. He is trying to install allies in the Politburo Standing Committee, to push through wide-ranging social, economic and military reforms, and possibly aiming to stay on in some capacity beyond the normal 10-year term.
Let me explain that terminology a bit. Old-fashioned stages were “raked”, i.e. they slanted—higher in the area away from the audience than in the area nearest the audience. “Upstage” means “towards the back of the stage”. It was literally upstage. You “upstaged” another actor by forcing the actor to turn his or her back on the audience.
To whatever extent Xi and by extension China have been upstaged, they have upstaged themselves. China’s problem is that like Buridan’s ass, they are frozen into inaction by contradictory objectives. They shouldn’t feel too alone. The United States has the same problem.
Irritating the United States is one thing, that’s just part of the essence of being North Korea. Irritating President Xi, who would like to demonstrate to all and sundry that he full commands his nations and its subordinates — such as North Korea– is likely not a good idea. At the very least, there will consequences in trade which leave North Korean peasants less happy with their rulers. At a greater level, conflicts between communist states were not unknown — China and the USSR had border “disputes” in the 1960’s, and in the 1970’s, China and Viet Nam aimed heavy slaps at each other.
I can easily imagine a scenario in which China mounts an army or six on its North Korean border, while the US keeps a nuclear-armed fleet not far from the other side of the peninsula, and South Korea strengthens defenses around Seoul. This wouldn’t by itself be a “military” solution to North Korea’s annoyances, but it would divert more and more of that country’s GNP to its military, reducing its overall growth, making the peasants unhappy, convincing NK generals that coups look attractive, etc.