Unemployment Claims Rise

The Department of Labor has announced that the number of initial unemployment claims has risen:

In the week ending July 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 479,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 460,000. The 4-week moving average was 458,500, an increase of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 453,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending July 24, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 24 was 4,537,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,571,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,575,500, an increase of 25,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,549,750.

The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 5.028 million.

That reflects an increase over the previous week and an increase over the week prior to that. That’s a poor trend for this stage of a recovery. If it is a recovery.

Consider this graph from Calculated Risk. That looks strongly like a new normal to me.

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