According to this report on a survey taken by the Public Religion Research Institute a solid majority of American Jews are pulling for the president to be re-elected:
WASHINGTON – A survey released Tuesday finds that 62 percent of Jewish voters want to see US President Barack Obama reelected, while of those who prefer a Republican win, 58% back Mitt Romney.
Obama also enjoys significantly higher favorable ratings than Romney, with 61% viewing him mostly or very favorably in comparison to just 31% who feel similarly about Romney. In contrast, only 20% view Obama very unfavorably while 29% view Romney that way.
I have little doubt that President Obama will carry the Jewish vote handily. However, focusing on that misses the story.
Turnout will be the story of the 2012 presidential election. Barack Obama carried northward of 80% of the Jewish vote in 2008 so I think it’s pretty likely most American Jews will vote for him this year. The question is in what numbers will they turn out for him? And, particularly, in what numbers will they turn out for him in key states, states he carried narrowly in 2008 or swing states? That’s the real question about every major demographic group, e.g. blacks, single women, etc.
Consider the map of the 2008 election results here. Focus on the “blue” states, the states that went for Obama. Of those there are some states, e.g. New York, California, Illinois, in which a few percentage points don’t really matter. It doesn’t matter whether 62% of Jews vote for Obama vs. 85%. Or 85% of black voters vs. 95%. Obama will still carry those states.
But in Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, and Colorado, maybe in Virginia, a few percentage points here or there could make the difference between Obama’s taking the state and Romney’s. Turnout will be vital.
I have no idea what the mood in those states will be seven months hence and I don’t think anybody else does, either. But the states to watch will be those that were close last time and around and the thing to watch will be turnout.
