I imagine that the Biden and Trump campaigns are asking a lot of questions of themselves about now. Consider this report from the Gallup organization as of a month ago. Republicans have a one point advantage in party affiliation. That’s within the range of error. It also doesn’t tell the whole story. If you scan down the page a bit you’ll find that more independents lean Democratic than lean Republican by three points. That’s a pretty narrow difference as well.
In both cases the trend is going in the wrong way for Biden. Is that continuing, stopped, or has it reversed?