I imagine that the Biden and Trump campaigns are asking a lot of questions of themselves about now. Consider this report from the Gallup organization as of a month ago. Republicans have a one point advantage in party affiliation. That’s within the range of error. It also doesn’t tell the whole story. If you scan down the page a bit you’ll find that more independents lean Democratic than lean Republican by three points. That’s a pretty narrow difference as well.
In both cases the trend is going in the wrong way for Biden. Is that continuing, stopped, or has it reversed?
Here’s an article from the former chairman or the Cal. Republican party giving his ten reasons Trump may yet win.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-surprise-victory-tom-del-beccaro
Interesting to me is number ten, a Gallop poll shows when asked not who they prefer, but who they think will win, 56% expect a Trump win, 40% Biden.
May indicate support for Trump that voters are reluctant to openly express so as not to antagonize their angry progressive friends and neighbors.