Today is a good opportunity to engage in my annual exercise in humility, evaluating how well my predictions for 2011 fared.
Things I Got Right
- Kim Jong-Il will die this year and be succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-Un. Whether Kim John-Un will actually have control of the reins of governments appears to be up for grabs at this point.
- GDP growth for the year will be at or below 3%. Growth will be sufficiently concentrated that it will feel worse.
- There will be no anti-austerity riots by public employees in the United States like those in Greece.
- PPACA will not be repealed or declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.
- Rahm Emanuel will be allowed to run in the primary for Chicago mayor.
- American forces will leave Iraq on schedule.
- At least 90,000 American soldiers will be in Afghanistan at the end of 2011.
- Julian Assange will not be convicted of sex charges in Sweden or of espionage in the United States.
- Jeff Bridges, Hailee Steinfeld, Natalie Portman, Colin Firth, and Geoffrey Rush will all be nominated for Academy Awards.
- The Coen Brothers will not announce that they’re beginning production of a new version of the Rodgers and Hammerstein musical, Oklahoma. (this was a rumor that was going around)
- There will still be prisoners at Guantanamo at the end of 2011. Like the Bush Administration before it the Obama Administration doesn’t know what else to do with them and it’s unwilling to take the heat for making the wrong decision.
- The EU’s actions will be successful in deferring the sovereign debt crisis among its member nations through 2011. The problems haven’t been solved—the can has just been kicked down the road.
Things I Got Wrong
- At least one state will either default, be bailed out by the federal government, or be allowed to declare bankruptcy. The city of Harrisburg has and one county (in the biggest bankruptcy in U. S. history). So far the states have managed to tread water.
- The Social Network will win the Academy Award as Best Picture. I’m gratified at the actual result (The King’s Speech). It does the Academy credit.
- House prices as measured by the Case-Shiller index of twenty leading markets will decline at least an additional 10%. The actual decline was about 4%. I continue to think that prices have significantly farther to fall but I underestimated the effects that trafficking the foreclosure process would have in slowing the decline.
Things I Got Part Right
- At the end of 2011 unemployment in the U. S. will be no less than 9%. BEA’s actual estimate, 8.6%, is close enough that I’m giving myself partial credit. My excuse it that a) I underestimated how well the BEA could jigger the numbers and b) I underestimated how quickly so many of the unemployed would become discouraged and, due to the arcane way in which unemployment is calculated, no longer be deemed unemployed.
- Colin Firth and Natalie Portman won Academy Awards. I didn’t figure on Melissa Leo but, again, I think the decision does the Academy credit.
- The Tea Party Movement will prove to be a genuine populist movement rather than just another name for regular Republicans. That Mitt Romney is having as much difficulty in securing the nomination as he is proves my point but, since I didn’t predict the rise of the “Occupy” movement which I think is one of the stories of the year, I’m only giving myself partial credit.
- President Obama’s approval rating as measured by the RCP average will not go over 50%. His approval rating (as calculated by the RCP average has been below 50% nearly all year and is currently below 50%. It did go a bit above 50% very briefly so I’m giving myself partial credit.
The final tally is 12-3-4. Once again that’s roughly the same as last year. As usual I missed some of the biggest stories of the year which by my reckoning are the “Arab Spring” and the “Occupy” movement.
