Tracking my 2005 predictions

Like many others in the media and blogosphere I made a number of predictions for 2005. Some turned out to be correct; some wrong; some spectacularly wrong. Here’s how I made out:

There will be two U. S. Supreme Court vacancies to fill before year’s end either through death or retirement. My first guess would be Chief Justice Rehnquist. I guess I’ll tap Justice O’Connor as my second guess since she may be waiting to see if she’s appointed Chief Justice. She won’t be.
The Iraq elections will come off at the end of this month and there will be a good turnout including among the Sunnis. The elections won’t do much to quell the violence there but the new government may have a freer hand in doing so. Some could quibble about the Sunni turnout but I’m counting this as a successful prediction.
No appreciable Social Security reform (although there may be some legislature passed and packaged as such).
Dow stays below 11,000.
Howard Dean will not be named chairman of the Democratic party. I’m sorry to say I underestimated the foolhardiness of the national Democratic Party.
Flu pandemic. This one was a stretch and I’m glad to have been wrong.
Major development in solar power generation. My guess: much cheaper solar panels. I’m going to count this one as correct.
No major improvements in either spam control or net security.
Iran tests nuclear weapon. Again I’m glad to have been wrong but nonetheless this will be on my 2006 prediction list.
No UN official or employee does a day of jail time for corruption related to Oil-for-Food scandal.
Kofi Annan continues to serve out his second term as UN Secretary General (and in all probabilty will complete his in 2006).
Ben Affleck will not marry in 2005.
Britney Spears’s marriage will not survive 2005. The year isn’t over yet but I’m counting this one as wrong.
The Passion of the Christ will be nominated for one or more Academy Awards but won’t win any.
“Hot pursuit” military action into Syria before year’s end. At least three newspapers (including The New York Times) have reported this so I’m counting it as correct.
Osama bin Laden will not be captured. At least 3 more audio tapes will appear apparently from OBL. No video. Despite the lack of OBL audio tapes I’m still counting this as correct since the major prediction was correct.
Former president Ford dies.
Former president Carter doesn’t.
All of the following will either have announced their campaign for the Presidency, formed exploratory committees, or will obviously be campaigning for the job: Joe Biden, Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Frist, John McCain. I’m counting this as correct. It sure looks obvious to me.
No major Chicago professional sports team will win a championship in 2005. This was my surest prediction and the one that was most spectacularly wrong. Who’da thunk it. Go Sox!

13 right; 7 wrong. Of the popular culture predictions 2 right; 4 wrong. My popular culture predictions were, by and large, terrible but my political, geo-political, and economic predictions were pretty darned good if I do say so myself.

I’ll have my predictions for 2006 up later today.

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