There was an interesting observation made in my post yesterday reacting to Sean Trende’s observations about the state of the Republican Party to the effect of a prediction that Midwestern and Southern states would experience a sharp out-migration while, presumably, those on the East and West Coasts would see in-migration. If I misinterpreted that comment I apologize in advance.
The graphic above, courtesy of Governing.com, (which I suspect will play hob with my format but you can’t have everything) depicts in-migration and out-migration by state in 2011. That’s the most recent I could find. If the commenter’s prediction is coming true, it isn’t exactly coming true yet. As you can see Midwestern states are experiencing out-migration and the leader of the pack is Illinois, the most Democratic state in the Midwest. Southern states are experiencing in-migration with the most in-migration being seen in the very Republican state of Texas. The most populous East and West Coast states, New York and California, respectively, are experiencing substantial out-migration.
I do not believe that the more-or-less current patterns reflect what the commenter was implying—that Republicans would drive people out of their states. That doesn’t appear to be happening. Indeed, if you can make a simple generalization based on statistics it would be the opposite.
Before I close I want to caution against too simple an interpretation. The statistics say nothing about just who is migrating. It could be that Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to leave their home states in search of greener pastures, it might be that Republicans are more likely to leave, or it could be that Democrats are. Texas could become more Republican rather than less or vice versa. Ditto for California. It depends.
And it all depends on whether you believe in the persistence theory. I tend not to but would be more predisposed to think about equilibria. It might be that Americans are seeking some sort of equilibrium and when that is reached the present trends will slow or even reverse. It can all be summed up in two words: it’s complicated.
Well, the NY picture is complicated by the fact that 65K moved to New Jersey and Connecticut. This is almost all commuters to NYC looking for houses rather than apartments, and who are most likely going to use a mass transit system that spans three states. Then there’s another 60K who went to Florida, most likely because they made enough money to retire well. So I would say the story is that NYC attracted more people than it could it hold, which is why infrastructure exists to expand its reach. It’s the exact opposite of the conclusion you would draw from looking at the numbers, but it fits with the what is obvious to anybody: NYC is an extremely desirable place to live.
And that was my basic point. ‘Decline’ is being used to describe the GOP because it seems to have trouble with basic factual propositions about life in America.
The amazing thing is that the Yankees that move to Florida hate everything about the state, including all the other goddamn Yankees, and want to change everything about the state – except the low taxes & lack of a state income tax. Basically, they want the state to spend as much as NY, IL, & CA without paying for a dime of it. (They also want it to snow all summer long.) That’s your reality based community right there.
I guess New Jersey and Connecticut home builders didn’t get the memo.
http://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-had-record-mass-exodus-in-2014/?utm_source=outbrain
NYC ebbs and flows with the financial markets. Participants are the only ones who can afford it. Fear not. The Fed is doing its best.
MM: 40,815 New Yorkers left for New Jersey at the same time that 41,450 New Jerseyians left for New York. (Net 635 for NY)
20,015 New Yorkers left for Connecticut, and 15,123 Conns left for New York (Net 4,892 for CT)
So basically, less than 5% of the net migration from NY is within the multi-state metropolitan area. Florida is more significant, accounting for 31% of net migration losses from NY.
NY, LA and Chicago are the three largest metros in the country and produce a lot of wealth and inequality. They draw a lot of people, but a lot of people cannot afford to stay there.
Ellipsis:
That’s exactly what I meant by “equlibrium”.
PD:
Said another way 65% of New York’s out-migration is not intra-urban.
Just as Chicago is not all of Illinois, New York City isn’t all of New York. When you get outside the megalopolis, economic conditions can be pretty rough and Texas starts looking pretty darned attractive.
Here is a map tool that allows one to look at domestic migration at the county level:
http://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/flowsmapper/map.html
A little slow, and perhaps too much detail, but also can program it to look at employed versus not-in-labor force (presumably retired).
I was aware of that dataset and map, PD. As you say, it’s a lot of detail and I don’t think it actually shows what you might want to see which is net migration within a non-state region.
Just as Chicago is not all of Illinois, New York City isn’t all of New York. When you get outside the megalopolis, economic conditions can be pretty rough and Texas starts looking pretty darned attractive.
Well, for people who can’t make their way into the megalopolis, Texas is a consolation prize. Or if not Texas, somewhere where the standards are lower.
I don’t believe this logic, by the way. What’s fascinating is that the GOP has chosen to believe in the system and yet it hates hates hates the Elect it produces.
Buffalo, Rochester, Schenectady, Poughkeepsie, Syracuse, Ithaca. The people who live there have been left behind. Thinking of them as striving to make it to New York City is a misconception.
Did someone call for local migration stats?
So Buffalo (Erie County) was pretty neutral on instate migration. If anything more people moved to Buffalo from other parts of NY than moved to other parts of NY (net 1,422) including from the Five Boroughs (net 44).
Buffalo lost population to other states though. (net loss 4,961) Top out-of-state destinations:
Pittsburgh, PA
Birmingham, AL
Rock Hill, SC
(Suburban Atlanta), GA
Charlotte, NC
Deltona, FL
Homosassa Springs, FL
Raleigh, NC
Las Vegas, NV
Carlisle, PA
Many of these places look like locations where you would go to find a middle class job, something other than waiting tables, Nevada and Florida possibly excepted.
Thinking of them as striving to make it to New York City is a misconception.
You’re wasting your digital breathe. People like Modulo can’t conceive of people who don’t want to be just like them.
Personally I laugh at the prices of housing in NYC. For the price of a small apartment in NYC you could be living in a palace in Central Florida. If you have a large apartment you could probably be living in a palace on the coast of Florida. Oh well, I’m glad the people that love NYC do in fact love it, because I’d hate to have all of them move here. Enough of them have already.
Deltona! Swampy ex-urb of Sanford, which is an ex-urb of Orlando! Alternately, it’s SW Daytona.
As far as where people are moving: Here’s population growth (approx.) of a few states from 1990 to 2013 (I’m too lazy to look up the 2014 numbers):
Connecticut: 300,000
New Jersey: 1,200,000
New York: 1,600,000
Florida: 6,600,000
Texas: 9,500,000
Yep, definitely a case of the tri-state area keeping up with Florida & Texas!
Other fun stats:
Population of Manhattan (2014): 1,640,000
Population of Orange County Florida (home of Orlando & Disney World): 1,250,000
Area of Manhattan: 33.77 sq. miles
Area of Orange County Florida: 1004 sq. miles
I think it’s cute how they take it out two places to the right of the decimal point for Manhattan, don’t you? It’s like a child insisting, “I’m 46 and THREE QUARTER inches, Daddy!”
But it’s worse than that. Manhattan only has 22.83 sq. miles of land, versus 903 sq. miles for Orange County Florida. It’s a question of whether or not you like being stacked like sardines or not for most people. And unless you’re in the penthouse, someone is taking a shit right over where you’re doing your own business. That just sounds oppressive to me, rather like Harko City (I believe the name was) from Dune.
MM,
I agree, NYC is great, but it is only part of New York. My sister in law lives in Brooklyn and she pays just a bit less for her 1 bedroom walk-up apartment than I pay for my 5 bedroom house in Florida (I have a wife and 3 kids). Everytime I visit NYC I look at real-estate and anyplace that can fit my family starts at about $4k a month. So it’s almost $50k a year just for housing – not really surprising people choose to move and suffer the commute instead.
Dave,
I hadn’t found governing.com before, it’s a pretty cool site – thanks! They have some interesting data:
http://www.governing.com/gov-data/census/metro-area-population-migration-estimates-2013-data.html
MM should look specifically at the NYC metro area. Los Angeles is th same story – domestic out-migration is offset by international migration. Note the caveats that international migration includes returning expats and military members (the latter category is not very relevant for LA or NYC). Chicago is pretty depressing – both are negative. Denver (my hometown), saw massive domestic migration.
Since I like to look at generational differences, I searched for and found this:
http://www.governing.com/topics/urban/gov-generational-population-data-maps-by-state.html
Change in median age by county:
http://www.governing.com/gov-data/age-65-older-population-map-usa-counties.html
And population growth by county:
http://www.governing.com/gov-data/census/county-population-changes-2012-census-map.html
Comment in moderation, went a bit crazy with the links.
Ice,
Florida has its charms but I’m still a mountain boy. I hate the summers here and the lack of areas for good hiking, camping or even walking. One of the reasons I like NYC is the walking. I would probably prefer NYC if the cost of living was equal but if I had my wish I’d move back west to somewhere in the Rockies or the Pacific Northwest. In short, different strokes for different folks. I’ve had the luxury or curse (depending on your perspective) of living in many different places over the past 25 years, so I’m now pretty confident about what I like and want.
Buffalo, Rochester, Schenectady, Poughkeepsie, Syracuse, Ithaca. The people who live there have been left behind. Thinking of them as striving to make it to New York City is a misconception.
Sorry, no. The SUNY system is chock-full of kids who grew up in these areas. They may not want to go to NYC, but they want to go someplace else than their hometown. DC or Boston, maybe, but they have ambitions.
You’re wasting your digital breathe. People like Modulo can’t conceive of people who don’t want to be just like them.
When I got out of college, my judicious mother made me call my auto insurance company. This was due to the fact that I planned on driving across the US and settling in San Francisco. The weirdo rep on the other end of the line was horrified at my plan–he was unsure as to how I could drive anywhere, with no fixed address other than a friend’s in CA., and still be insured. I feel like you guys are coming from the same sort of rigid atmosphere. Nothing I’m writing is exceptionally strange. People want to live where it’s exciting! No way, you insane elitist who believes that drudgery and an underpaid assembly-line routine for thirty years are not the due result of a life of porridge and banality. After all, when you get laid off before you’re fifty, you have the privilege of ranting about minorities. That’s a feather in your cap!
Progressives, the other white intolerant people.
In short, different strokes for different folks.
For which I’m happy. I’d be happier still if more people preferred living somewhere other than Florida. The place was better with fewer people. And although we’re not California, we do have our own long-term water problems brewing – the aquifers won’t last forever. It’s just that the state will continue to look green because of all that ocean spray (i.e., rain) that comes in regularly.
“People want to live where it’s exciting! ”
I’m sure that’s true for people like you, but not “people” in general. I remember from an earlier thread that you are young, in your 20’s IIRC. Is that correct? Do you have kids? I’m guessing not (but please correct me if I’m wrong). Most people with kids want to live where it is safe, where there are good schools and where it is relatively affordable. Exciting is pretty low on the list which is why people who live in NYC move out when they start having families and not the reverse.
People want to live where it’s exciting!
No, SOME people want to live where it’s exciting. Some people don’t. And if you really preferred excitement, you could move to Libya, Syria, or Haiti – all no doubt far more adrenalized than NYC. Hell, you could move to my neighborhood. We get gunfire most every night, even had a riot around the corner a few weeks ago. (The riots used to be right up the street, though, so they’re moving farther away. I guess my little patch is getting less exciting.)
No way, you insane elitist who believes that drudgery and an underpaid assembly-line routine for thirty years are not the due result of a life of porridge and banality. After all, when you get laid off before you’re fifty, you have the privilege of ranting about minorities. That’s a feather in your cap!
Honestly, I have no idea what point you’re even trying to make. I wasn’t doing assembly line work, I have STEM training (as opposed to whatever the fuck humanities bullshit you learned, as you clearly never met a logical thought in your life), did white collar ‘mind’ work, and I got laid off before I was forty.
As for the rest – I’m pretty sure you don’t live around the mix of Haitian and Jamaican gangbangers I do, much less the reactive American black street gangs. You know, guys who form social clubs with names like Death Over Mercy who enjoy shooting innocent teenage girls in the head for the fuck of it. Easy to talk about how great minorities are when you don’t live amongst them. (And spare me the bullshit about how “diverse” your neighborhood is. Having doctors of every conceivable race in your building doesn’t mean you live amongst the masses of people of color, and you fucking know it. Else I’d see people like you moving into neighborhoods like mine for the wonders of diversity, and that only happens when you guys can move in, gentrify, and then chase out all the black people. See that story from DC about the gentrifiers trying to get their neighbor kicked out of his family home because of “smoking”.)
Progressives, the other white intolerant people.
PD, it’s all a combination of signalling, status-seeking, and positional goods. The more a person like him can be outraged about people like me, the better his standing within his social group. It’s got nothing to do with tolerance for anyone else, and all about getting ahead. There’s not a liberal alive these days that is anything other than a status-seeking social-climber looking for opportunities to screw everyone else to get ahead – all while proclaiming their commitment to social justice, of course. At least the libertarians and the libertarian-leaning conservatives are honest about wanting to fuck over everyone else. Liberals are the absolute worst primarily because of their smug dishonesty about every single facet of their lives.
Progressives, the other white intolerant people.
I prefer to think of progressives as the other other OTHER white meat. (Rich people are the other other white meat.) Remember, kids, eat the rich and the progressives before they eat you!
Don’t see it on this thread, but on another thread recently I saw an argument explaining the increasing gap in wealth and incomes as a function of a fundamental change in the nature of the modern economy. Such arguments always leave me puzzled. This kind of increasing disparity has happened over and over again in human civilizations of every type imaginable. It’s happened in the US before, prior to the Great Compression most recently.
And it’s pretty much always the same thing: The people who are already wealthy and powerful start rigging the system so that they accrue more wealth and power at the expense of their fellows. In the US as in feudal Europe as in old China. Over and over again, the same thing. And EVERY SINGLE TIME the people on top claim that they’re simply getting ahead solely because of their innate superiority.
So am I really supposed to believe that even though this phenomenon has occurred many, many times before, this time it is happening by a completely different causality?
The reason I mention this is because of the underlying, unspoken assumption of the people making the claim that even though this time is the same it’s really different. That assumption is, “WE aren’t a bunch of people looking out only for ourselves. That was a failing of those other, lesser people. But WE are better than that!”
You see that kind of moral, preening smudgeness* everywhere you look these days. Or at least everywhere you look where people are getting ahead.
* Not a typo.
US Census: “Job-related reasons were most common among long distance moves, while housing-related reasons were the preferred
choice for shorter moves.” Housing related reasons include wanting to own a home, not rent, or wanting affordable housing or a better neighborhood/less crime.
https://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p20-574.pdf
@Icepick
No, SOME people want to live where it’s exciting. …
[…]
… Liberals are the absolute worst primarily because of their smug dishonesty about every single facet of their lives.
You would do better to find a brick wall and bang your head against it. It is pointless to argue with people like him/her. Some of the most racist people are white liberals who live in black majority neighborhoods. It is mind boggling.
They make the same accusations of racism like every other liberal/progressive, but they will call the black people in their neighborhood the most vile racist names imaginable. I would ask them, “what about President Obama?” Their reply was, “He’s different. He is not like them.”
It reminds me of Lewis Black’s routine if it weren’t for my horse. It was pointless trying to use logic with them. They all had some type of alternate logic where 0 = 1 and 2 + 2 = 5 or 12 or red or dog. They hated every black person who directly affected them, but they loved every black person who did not.
It is as Chesterton wrote: it is easier to love the Chinese whom you do not know than your next door neighbor whom you do.