At Illinois Policy Bryce Hill takes note of a sorry statistic:
Illinois lost three times as many residents as any other state during the past decade.
While total numbers for the decade were bad, the ongoing worry is because losses were accelerating.
Illinois recorded a seventh straight year of population loss from July 2019 to July 2020, but the year’s drop was historic – 79,487 residents, the most since World War II and the second largest of any state in raw numbers or percentage of population. Larger declines year over year have also caused Illinois to suffer the largest raw decline in population, and second largest on a percentage basis since 2010, shedding 253,015 people – triple any other state’s losses.
Population decline is even worse when you consider the experiences of nearby states last year and during the decade. The Midwest as a whole grew population by 1.34 million from 2010 to 2020, and Illinois was the only state in the entire region to experience population loss during the decade.
That statistic doesn’t really tell the whole story. The people who are leaving very much consist of those you might wish to stay: Asian/Pacific Islanders, people with college educations, and people who earn middle or higher incomes. It is not merely a case of retirees moving south for the weather as some might contend.
And saying they’re moving because of Illinois’s taxes is overly simplistic. They’re moving because of the taxes, for greater opportunities, and because of Illinois’s criminally bad political mismanagement. They’re moving because of crime and corruption and because there’s little likelihood of things improving.
It wouldn’t surprise if they’re moving to the same places. Which would mean they now know someone there and being in touch with family and friends,
the trend accelerates.
The most surprising trend I’ve seen is the number of Californians coming to the Carolina’s and Florida. In droves. Those people aren’t leaving due to cold winters.
In fact a RE consultant friend whose job it is to know well the venues from TN to NC down through the Carolina’s, GA/FL, and TX, tells us a typical inquiry from the NE, upper MW or CA begins with “only red states, please.”
It’s a Mad Tea Party. The risk, of course, is the degree to which those fleeing will attempt to reproduce what they had in California. Judging by Arizona the likelihood is pretty high.