This afternoon as I was out and about I happened on a fantastic program on NPR. The To the Point program topic was The Year Ahead for Iraq. This is a must-listen program whereever you fit onto the political spectrum. The guests on the portion that I caught were Anthony Cordesman, Juan Cole, and Victor Davis Hansen so, clearly, there was something for everyone. Interestingly, Cordesman seems to think that there will be a draw-down in U. S. troops from Iraq to leave perhaps 70,000-80,000 remaining. Does this constitute “bringing the troops home”? Somehow I don’t think this will satisfy those who are opposed to our presence there. Dr. Cordesman did impose a dizzying set of caveats and conditions on his prediction.
Equally interesting was the duet interview with Juan Cole and Victor Davis Hansen. This was done in the format which appears to be pretty conventional these days: the interviewer asked the first person a question (in this case Juan Cole), then summarized the answer in the form of a question to the other interview subject. This went back and forth for several rounds, every single bit of it interesting. If the tape becomes available, I’ll include a link to it.
As you might expect Cole’s and Hansen’s viewpoints could hardly have been more different. Cole believes that Iraq is on the brink of either an Iranian-style Islamic theocracy or a Lebanon-style civil war or both. Hansen believes that the Middle East is inching its way towards democracy. Neither man has first-hand knowledge of events on the ground right now in Iraq. Both men have good reasons for believing what they believe.
Now I don’t happen to believe that neither Cole nor Hansen are completely right or completely wrong. I suspect that both are partially right and both are partially wrong. Definitely worth a listen.
