The biggest news story being consigned to the back pages while we focus our attentions on ourselves may well be the border tension between China and India. At Bloomberg James Stavridis remarks:
Just as it appeared that China and India had reached a détente after weeks of military escalation at their Himalayan border, Chinese troops have reportedly killed at least 20 Indian soldiers, and may have suffered their own casualties. The first deadly border clash since the mid-1970s shows just how fraught relations between the world’s two most populous countries are becoming. And while the geopolitical dangers are obvious and severe, the crisis also presents the U.S. with an opportunity to forge the strong relationship with India it has desired for more than two decades.
The current conflict began several weeks ago when the Chinese moved thousands of troops into the Galwan valley in Ladakh, along what is known as the Line of Actual Control. (I’ve always been struck by that oddly worded term — what is the alternative, the Line of Fake Control?)
The proximate cause was India’s decision to build a road leading to a forward air base. China responded by building up forces, bringing in heavy equipment (excavators, troop carriers and possibly artillery), and building a new tented barracks to support them. In doing so, the Chinese soldiers entered a part of the region that had long been regarded as Indian by both sides.
India responded to the incursion by reinforcing its troops along the 2,000-mile border. Complicating the situation, neighboring Nepal and Pakistan have been strengthening their relationships with China, and the Nepalese are disputing Indian claims along their shared border.
Other sources have reported that the Chinese suffered 35 casualties although this has not been confirmed by Chinese authorities who have attributed their reticence to a desire not to aggravate the situation.
When two nuclear powers come to blows, it is always troubling. It’s even more troubling should both parties decide that they can’t afford, for domestic political purposes, to back down. U. S.-Chinese relations have long been compared to Athens and Sparta—a “Thucydides trap”. I have long wondered if that’s not a more apt comparison for Chinese-Indian relations.
I went in to work a bit earlier than usual this morning (4:30) so didnt have my usual news show on, but I think heard them say that both the Chinese and the Indians agreed to not carry guns. They killed each other by using clubs and rocks. In my mind that speaks to a higher level of hatred and anger than I was aware of before this (if true).
Steve
We will not know what happened until the survivor stories come out.
Analysts reporting on the topography where it happened is it is a cliff-like mountain. There are stories there was shoving match and soldiers fell off.
For now, I do not think there is going to be escalation, as both parties are dealing with COVID (Beijing is acting like it has a serious outbreak, and 2000 deaths were reported from COVID in India yesterday).
The consequences are all going to be later… when COVID has passed.
At this point I believe nothing that comes out of China about COVID-19. For all we know Beijing is in the middle of a major outbreak. Or had one months ago. Or the authorities are being completely forthcoming this time. We have no way of knowing.
WRT India I hear that some cities are about to resume tight lockdowns. Apparently, the situation there is getting worse rather than better and there is community spread.
For India to go into lockdown again — perhaps. But they relaxed the lockdowns because the economic damage from lockdown was unaffordable. India does not have the resources for a welfare state.
It is a dystopian nightmare if COVID got so dire India were forced into another lockdown.
All I can say for Beijing is the authorities behavior is consistent with a major outbreak; cancelling flights, stopping schools, cancelling government meetings, locking down residential compounds. So far it is not being replicated in other cities.
“India does not have the resources for a welfare state.
It is a dystopian nightmare if COVID got so dire India were forced into another lockdown.”
Dam* Fauci destroying another economy!
Steve
Steve just pointed out the other reason why India won’t go for another lockdown.
The first one failed.
As Dave said, in theory if everyone was sealed in a separate room for 2 months, then a lockdown should work. But as implemented in India, which had one of the strictest lockdowns anywhere in the world, it failed to bend the curve down. If the lockdown one can do in practice doesn’t help; then I guess one would say lockdowns don’t work.
“If the lockdown one can do in practice doesn’t help; then I guess one would say lockdowns don’t work.”
As I’ve been saying from Day 1.
The old engineering snark is: consider a perfect sphere, travelling though an ideal gas, with no friction, no turbulent flow and no compression losses………….ignore heat transfer. You get the idea. Its theoretical garbage.
And worst of all is they’re fighting over barren rock and glaciers. Oh, maybe someday there might be valuable metals and minerals in them thar peaks. But the lodes would have to be ridiculously rich to make them worth exploiting. National pride is a stupid-a** reason to kill over.
” If the lockdown one can do in practice doesn’t help; then I guess one would say lockdowns don’t work.”
Or they just dont work in some places. There were concerns all along that poor countries would suffer because they would not have the resources to lockdown or effect social distancing. Foci should have known better when he made India do this.
Steve