At Vox.com German Lopez thrashes like a fish on a gaff producing reasons that Georgia’s early reopening did not produce the surge in new cases of COVID-19 that some had predicted including:
- It’s too early
Unless the statements about incubation periods are completely wrong after a month that doesn’t seem particularly likely.
- There might be some data manipulation
He produces no evidence that has actually taken place. It might take place is about as much as one can say.
- People are staying home anyway
I wonder how one would go about quantifying that?
- Masks, good hygiene, and other behavioral changes may make a difference
Again, I wonder how one would go about quantifying that.
before lurching uncontrollably onto the obvious explanation:
- Maybe luck, or something else we don’t fully understand, is playing a role
I can think of any number of other possible reasons, presumably subsumed within that category. How about this one? Not everyone is equally susceptible to the virus and the most susceptible contracted it early.
I wouldn’t be surprised if all of the above were not factors in one degree or another but the fact remains that the feared surge has not happened. As we learn more about SARS-Cov-2 it will be interesting to see if we become better able to evaluate to what degree each of those factors actually explains what is happening.
Beginning to fear that researchers will never pin this bastard down or even learn much that’s useful about it.
The clotting stuff is over my head, but if it doesn’t scare you
You’re crazy.
According to Georgia’s official statistics, they had a peak in cases in late April, and smaller peak in late May and are currently trending down. Deaths peaked in late April and have declined ever since.
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
Georgia’s trends look similar to Colorado’s except we didn’t have a second peak of cases. Here in Colorado, we’ve been opening up steadily over the last month +. Churches are open (but with strict social distance measures) and some restaurants too.
Mysteries getting solved in an hour only happens on TV. Real science proceeds slowly—far too slowly for the news media.
“it will be interesting to see if we become better able to evaluate to what degree each of those factors actually explains what is happening.”
Yup, we will definitely do that. Not only will it take a while, the studies wont agree for a while either. Eventually it will sort out.
Steve
Concerning 3 and 4. Not down here. If you have eyes you know that compared to the last couple months the people are out in droves and the masks are the only thing falling like flies.
‘Yup, we will definitely do that. Not only will it take a while, the studies wont agree for a while either. Eventually it will sort out.’
Unfortunately the answers will tell us how we can successfully fight another pandemic with the characteristics of this one, not the next one. The forced learning curve you endured will help fight the next one, but only as long as you and the other veterans of Kung Flu are still in power at your institutions. Otherwise, it will be forgotten or ignored.
‘German Lopez thrashes like a fish on a gaff producing reasons that Georgia’s early reopening did not produce the surge in new cases of COVID-19 that some had predicted’
It must really suck when you’re a TDS journalist and a dumb virus refuses to adhere to your narrative.