Pat Lang has a good, succinct summary of the status of things in Iraq:
1- The intensive pushing and shoving among the Shia politico-military factions continues with the “Iraq Security Forces” (Dawa/Badr/Hakim/ISCI) seeking to leverage American support for enough power to neuter Moqtada al-Sadr and his band of merry Mahdists (or Mahdinistas if you prefer) before the putative provincial elections in the Autumn. (maybe there won’t be elections if the neutering does not go well)
2- The US continues to insist that its chosen Iraqi faction has already achieved the status of “legitimacy” in the eyes of “the Iraqi people.” No. It has not, but, you never know, this might work if we stick with that idea for enough years. McCain would give us the chance to find out if that is possible.
3- The Iranians continue to play all sides against the middle waiting to see what happens. Who knows? We might even decide to talk to them on a serious basis.
4- The Sunni international jihadists (AQ in I) are trying to stage a comeback by blowing themselves up in suicide attacks against the “Sons of Iraq.” This is unlikely to have much political effect since the Sunni Arabs have pretty much opted against them. (The fish in the sea… Remember that old stuff?)
Bottom line, “there will be blood,” but not as much as there used to be. pl
It’s reassuring in a grim sort of way that the views of someone as well-informed as Col. Lang dovetail so neatly with my own. However, I think we differ in a “cup half-empty, cup half-full” sort of way. I sense that Col. Lang is unhappy that things aren’t in better shape in Iraq. I’m relieved that they’re not in worse shape.
