The Shape of Things to Come

Consider this one-page Morgan Stanley forecast of U. S. economic outlook from Business Insider. It predicts GDP from 2% to 3.9% during 2011, 1.9% to 4.5% in 2012, and 2.1% to 2.9% thereafter with inflation remaining very low for the foreseeable future in all forecasts.

Put me down on the bearish side of the forecasts. I think that we’re unlikely to see growth muchl above 2.5% for some time. Note, especially, that’s Morgan Stanley’s long-term forecast. That is below or barely at the level for job creation to keep pace with the natural increase and far below a level that would send the millions who are currently unemployed back to work.

Does over the period of the next 7 years count as permanent?

1 comment… add one
  • john personna Link

    No one can possibly know at this point, hence the huge range (2% to 3.9% … but don’t say 2%-4%, that would seem like guessing ;-))

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