The Republican Field

Political consultant Charlie Cook categorizes the Republican field of presidential candidates into four categories: the establishement candidates like Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, conservative governors like John Kasich or Mike Pence, tea party candidates like Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, and social conservatives like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum.

Right now the Democratic field seems limited to Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Bernie Saunders. None of those in the Republican field other than possibly Ted Cruz is awful enough that I could envision being driven to vote for one of them.

I can imagine voting for John Kasich or Mike Pence. I’d vote for either of them over Hillary Clinton.

Mr. Cook concludes:

Each of these brackets make up distinct and substantial segments of the Republican electorate, with contestants fighting each other for dominance and the ability to move onto the next level. Theoretically, the establishment bracket winner will face off with the winner of the conservative governor bracket, each competing for the less ideologically hard-lined Republican voters, while the tea-party and religious bracket victors will face off among the most conservative of Republican primary voters.

noting that there are bound to be “twists and turns” along the way.

5 comments… add one
  • Modulo Myself Link

    The Democrats sure do have a young and lively set of candidates.

  • Joe Biden is almost too lively.

  • jan Link

    The Republican field is a free-for-all, with anyone having the slightest desire to become the next POTUS entering the GOP tryouts for the primaries. The demonstration of loose canons joining serious candidates was observed in the recent Iowa Freedom Summit event. IMO, social conservatives, such as Huckabee, Santorum, and I’ll throw in Palin for good measure, are absurd, fueled by their own small bubble of acolytes, rather than a real self evaluation of having a broader appeal — something needed to win over a majority of voters. Also, as much as I liked and supported Romney in 2012, I think he should remain in his Elder Statesmen role, instead of challenging Jeb Bush for the establishment republican slot.

    The “sleepers” in the mix are Pence and Kasich — the former following in the footsteps of another low-key but successful Indiana governor, Mitch Daniels, who was my first choice as a candidate in the last presidential election. Whether these two get any traction at all, though, will depend on how well Scott Walker is able to cultivate a following. His name is being bantered around a lot, with pundits saying he has the ability to garner votes from all four categories outlined by Charlie Cook. His major battle, however, will be with the unions, being they hate his guts.

    I think Ted Cruz’s appeal is receding, as his rhetoric, like Palin and Obama, is wearing thin, based almost exclusively on partisan vitriol aimed at pleasing the party’s base. What people are looking for, IMO, is someone who can competently lead this country with fairness and wisdom, rather than someone who simply wants to score political points and augment his/her own ambitious ego. As for Rand Paul, his political identity resides more in his libertarian slant, than any support gleaned by the Tea Party. Consequently, he represents a new republican flavor, something creating an opening for the youth demographic to seriously consider as a “maybe.” Rubio is yet another young, attractive, verbally-skilled politician, who is quickly establishing himself as another viable contender.

    As for the Democratic menu of candidates, they basically have only one major choice — Hillary Clinton. All the rest are side dish distractions. She appears to be going forward, bringing in her still popular husband as kind of a catnip to attract people back to the “good old days” of the 90’s — at least in their heads.

  • ... Link

    You know, Schuler, you don’t have to vote at all. I feel better about my non-vote last year than any actual vote I ever cast. Though I do think maybe I should shown up and handed in a blank ballot instead…..

  • steve Link

    Much too early to worry about this. I also still contend it is best to think about who you will vote against. The word from family in Indiana is that Pence is not very bright (graduated from my high school, a few years behind me), but is quite telegenic. Reminds me of the Futurama line about our handsomest politicians.

    Steve

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