Yesterday a commenter said something to the effect that Trump supporters were moving from their states to blue states seeking greater opportunity than afforded under their red state homes’ benighted policies. I believe he should check his assumptions.
The three states that have lost the largest number of citizens, i.e. people eligible to vote, are all reliably blue states—California, New York, and Illinois. Since not as many immigrants arrive in Illinois as in California or New York, Illinois has actually lost population. Those people haven’t all died or just evaporated. They’ve moved elsewhere, notably to Texas, hitherto a reliably red state, but also to Georgia and North Carolina.
Other places that have gained in citizen population: counties containing state capitols or adjoining counties containing state capitols or adjoining Washington, DC, especially Northern Virginia.
In other words Trump voters aren’t moving to anti-Trump states; anti-Trump voters are moving to states that went to Trump in 2016. It remains to be seen what the consequences of that might be. It could be that Illinoisans moving to Texas will become Texans. I doubt it. I think they’ll vote for the same dysfunctional politics and policies in their new homes that are destroying Illinois now.
I think that what we will see in the 2018 and 2020 elections will reflect a major realignment. Purple Virginia has become blue. Some hitherto reliably red states will become purple. Reliably blue states will remain blue but won’t have the vote totals expected in the past. Blue counties in red states may turn purple.