The Realignment

Yesterday a commenter said something to the effect that Trump supporters were moving from their states to blue states seeking greater opportunity than afforded under their red state homes’ benighted policies. I believe he should check his assumptions.

The three states that have lost the largest number of citizens, i.e. people eligible to vote, are all reliably blue states—California, New York, and Illinois. Since not as many immigrants arrive in Illinois as in California or New York, Illinois has actually lost population. Those people haven’t all died or just evaporated. They’ve moved elsewhere, notably to Texas, hitherto a reliably red state, but also to Georgia and North Carolina.

Other places that have gained in citizen population: counties containing state capitols or adjoining counties containing state capitols or adjoining Washington, DC, especially Northern Virginia.

In other words Trump voters aren’t moving to anti-Trump states; anti-Trump voters are moving to states that went to Trump in 2016. It remains to be seen what the consequences of that might be. It could be that Illinoisans moving to Texas will become Texans. I doubt it. I think they’ll vote for the same dysfunctional politics and policies in their new homes that are destroying Illinois now.

I think that what we will see in the 2018 and 2020 elections will reflect a major realignment. Purple Virginia has become blue. Some hitherto reliably red states will become purple. Reliably blue states will remain blue but won’t have the vote totals expected in the past. Blue counties in red states may turn purple.

11 comments… add one
  • Modulo Myself

    I misunderstand you. I thought you were saying that Trump voters were leaving.

    Anyway, the thing about being anti-Trump is that it encompasses everything that’s not tax cuts, slashing health care, clumsy fear-mongering and racism, and insulting people on twitter. He’s done nothing that he promised. And his base does not care. When the best part about your President is that his victory pissed off the liberals–that’s pathetic.

    And that’s why you have a 30-something Marine veteran who was injured doing lighting work running as a democratic socialist winning against the House Whip. The Trump people look old, scared, and miserable. It was unfortunate that Hillary was running against him because she was not that different.

  • Jan

    Living in popular, populous CA the news this morning was underlining the loss of jobs here, locally. Coupled with that was an article, a week ago, denoting the rising crime rate in our community, being the highest in the country in it’s size category. Homelessness here is also plentiful, attracted by the moderate climate and many social progressive services available here. Then there is rent control, with CA being the home of some of the harshest laws. There is currently a state-wide initiative in the mill, which will put further screws into housing, perhaps even threatening the single family and condo sector – areas that have thus far been immune from the strident laws often supported by uneffected ultra liberal populations living in their serene single family unclaves.

    But, if and/or when these liberal populations find such policies too difficult for themselves to prosper in or abide by, they will move to states offering greater opportunities and less red tape, as they generously spread the very ideology that drove them out of their former state.


  • Jan:

    Don’t forget the rise in hepatitis to which homeless people eliminating on the sidewalk is presumed to be a contributing factor.

  • steve

    If I can find the studies, the original assertion may be correct. When you look at the demographics of who moves, not just the absolute numbers, you find those who are immigrating into blue states are better educated and relatively more affluent. If work ever slows down will try to find.


  • Guarneri

    You jest keep tellin’ yerself that, MM.

  • Guarneri

    You jest keep tellin’ yerself that, MM.

    I can only specifically tell you about IL, FL and AZ. The people leaving IL aren’t taking the disastrous mindset with them. Not the ones I know. The people going into FL from IL, NJ, NY etc aren’t either. Only those going to Miami. They are getting out of dodge.

    AZ – Phoenix and Scottsdale really – same thing.

    We’ve spent an awful lot of time over the past two years meeting new people, talking to the real estate community about migration drivers. The feedback is overwhelming. I don’t envy the prospects of the NE and Upper MW, and CA, except for major metro enclaves. In the SE and SW, the future looks much different.

  • Mercer

    I think the movement that will influence elections will be Puerto Ricans moving to Florida.

  • TastyBits

    […] He’s done nothing that he promised. […]

    If he was elected, we were promised the end of the world as we know it, and now that it has not ended, the anti-Trump crowd should be ecstatic. As usual, haters gotta hate.

    […] And his base does not care. […]

    The Republicans and Democrats are never going to let him succeed, and there is no downside to both Party’s agenda being blocked. If President Trump had not been elected, the Trump supporters would have been shit on by both Parties.

    To be clear, the Democrats are not the problem. The same Republicans who whined about Obamacare for the past 7 years without ever creating a replacement and who have cried about taxes for, at least, the past 7 years do not have a tax bill.

    Surprise, surprise. The actual Republican agenda is no different than the Democrat agenda. Somehow, the Republicans almost get enough votes, but the last vote(s) are against it.

    […] When the best part about your President is that his victory pissed off the liberals–that’s pathetic.

    Screaming at the sky is pathetic. If his agenda will not be enacted, pissing off Progressives and the elite establishment is a good alternative.

    I would suggest that everybody on the Left examine their side, and if you are honest, you will discover that it is just as corrupt.

    Or, you could keep screaming at the sky.

    Burn, baby, burn.

  • Guarneri

    I think Mercer is correct. And it is unknown right now. I can tell you this. The Mexican population, obviously significant down here, are as hard working and good natured as one could expect or hope. At the risk of sounding racist, more so than the white swamp-people.

    Tasty – I think Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. Disrupting the status quo.

  • Jan

    I agree with you Drew, in describng the general work ethic, adding family values to the mix, of the Latino culture. Most haven’t yet activated the “entitlement” gene, and seem to apply the historical American meme of ” the harder you work the further you’ll go.”

  • steve

    “I think Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. Disrupting the status quo.”

    Wins the internet!


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