Pretty clearly the question that Pfizer and Moderna want to answer is how many doses of their vaccines can they produce by the end of 2021? That isn’t the question to which I want to know the answer. The question I want answered is how long will it take them to produce another 20 million doses?
The reason I want it answer is the effect that might have on policy. The answer isn’t obvious. It might be that they can produce another 20 million doses in 10% of the time it will take to produce 200 million. But it might be that it will take 90% of the time it will take to produce 200 million or anything in between.