The Public Opinion Polls

Today seems like a good time to consider the results of some public opinion polls. I’m going to try to make this a dry recitation of facts with as few opinions as possible.

1. President Trump’s presidential approval rating is the highest of his presidency.

According to Gallup’s most recent findings that approval rating is 49%. That’s higher than President Obama’s was at this point in his presidency, outside the margin of error, and about the same as President Bush’s was at that point.

2. If the election were held today and we elected presidents at large, he would be likely to win against any of the Democrats presently seeking their party’s nomination.

According to the latest Economist/YouGov survey present opinion suggests, by margins of greater than 19 points, that Trump is likely to win:

3. The econometric models of presidential election outcomes support Trump’s re-election.

Ray Fair’s model and the three different econometric models from Moody’s all forecast that Trump will be re-elected. If people vote their pocketbooks, as they have during the post-war period, Trump will be re-elected.

4. The betting markets favor Trump’s re-election.


5. The election will not be held today and we do not elect presidents at large.

The election is still more than eight months away, God help us. And the Electoral College still elects the president. The statistics I would really like to see are the opinions of people in the states that Trump carried in 2016. Said another way the Democratic candidate whoever he or she might be could carry every state that Hillary Clinton did in 2016 by larger margins than Hillary Clinton secured and still lose the election if unable to switch any states from Trump to themselves.

5 comments… add one
  • jan Link

    All I can say is a lot can happen between now and the election. Although, today, Trump appears to be in the driver’s seat. Even his harsh rhetoric is becoming more normalized, as his opponents ratchet up their behavior to even more unseemly heights.

    One event, sliding under yesterday’s public radar, was Trump’s California’s Central Valley appearance, where he signed legislation giving well deserved leniency to a farmer’s ability to access water. It was a warm, genuine outreach to people representing heartland lifestyles and concerns. I grew up on stories from my grandmother about the hardships of being a N Dakota farmer. Consequently, that stop in Bakersfield resonated with me, touching a memory chord giving points to the president.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    Don’t worry, Trump isn’t the type to win big – something will happen that will make him a 50/50 or worse for reelection.

    So far it feels like the Canadian election last year. The incumbent has a big corruption scandal, but the scandal becomes a partisan brawl and the incumbent’s party ends the investigation. Polls show the incumbent losing in the winter but flip to winning in the summer.

    Here is how Canada’s election ended, Trudeau won re-election but on a weakened mandate after having a terrible finish to the campaign.

    It’s like the equivalent to Trump winning in Nov by a single state and Republicans losing the senate — which is a quite plausible outcome.

  • Andy Link

    Normally I’d say everything points to Trump having a big advantage, but the weirdness of the last few years makes me have much less confidence in predictions generally.

  • GreyShambler Link

    From here it looks like it’s Trump’s to lose, It’s hard to picture any of the democratic candidates growing a broader base because they are well known to voters now. Mayor Pete was the dark horse young enough to inspire with charisma if he has it. I think I’m too old to know if people will vote for him in spite of his orientation, or in some cases because of it, my best guess is that it’s baggage politically but armor in the debates. No, this is trump’s to lose.

  • TarsTarkas Link

    I think the chances of Her Odiousness jump in to ‘save’ the party are growing day by day. It’s still so crazy that I absolutely have no idea who the Democratic nominee. The DNC is desperately trying anything and everything (now the smear is that Bernie is a Russian asset) to keep Sanders from gaining a delegate total proof against superdelegates. Agree, the run-up to the election is just getting sooooo loooooooooooong I just want it to be over!

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