The next episode of the doc fix, the postponing or waiving of the physician compensation rate reductions that Congress enacted back in 1999 and has delayed virtually every year since, airs in January 2012. IMO this will constitute a preview of the likely effectiveness of the ACA in controlling the growth of healthcare costs.
If the Congress allows the rate reductions in whole or in part to take place on schedule, it will indicate some actual commitment to controlling costs.
My bet is that, just as has been the case practically every year for the last twelve, the Congress punts. Heck, my guess is that there won’t even be much fuss over it.