The Natanz Hack

You have presumably heard about the recent cyber-exploit which shut down Irani’s Natanz refinement facility and caused damage to some of its centrifuges. It is widely believed that the Israelis were the source of the attack.

The situation is extremely volatile. Among the factors are that the Israelis are well aware that detonating a single nuclear device within its borders could well destroy the entire country. That provides the Israelis the motivation to engage, not just in cyberattacks, but even in pre-emptive nuclear strikes against Iran and it is believed they have that ability.

I don’t think the Iranian leadership has a similar consciousness. I think they see antipathy towards Israel as their ticket towards increased influence in the Muslim world and, potentially, as a religious obligation. I also think that they believe that God will protect them. Some might deem that irrational but I believe that from the point-of-view of the Iranian leadership it’s completely rational.

The JCPOA did not defuse this situation and if anything the Biden Administration’s determination to restart the JCPOA has aggravated it. In other words all parties are acting completely rationally within their own cloistered points-of-view.

Then there are the Russians. On the one hand the Russians presently have a pretty fair relationship with the Iranians but on the other they’ve actually occupied parts of Iran within living (or nearly within living) memory and I doubt the Iranians have forgotten that. And there are the Chinese who also have a pretty fair relationship with the Iranians. I don’t quite understand how the Chinese can persecute Muslims and retain the support of the mullahs but the mullahs’ lack of alternatives provides them with a certain amount of cover.

Those are among the reasons I consider the situation extremely volatile.

4 comments… add one
  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    All I can say is it is something to see the relatively friendly relations between China, Russia, Turkey, Iran (or at least a lack of direct hostility between the 4).

  • steve Link

    “The JCPOA did not defuse this situation and if anything the Biden Administration’s determination to restart the JCPOA has aggravated it.”

    Agree. We have effectively become Israel’s client state. They wont tolerate our working with Iran. They will torpedo any efforts.

    Steve

  • We have effectively become Israel’s client state.

    Yep. Talk about the tail wagging the dog. What’s worse support for Israel has become a valence issue.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    China, Russia, Turkey, Iran:

    Axis of evil, redux.

Leave a Comment