The Intrusion of Reality

I strongly encourage you to read Bill Roggio’s assessment of the situation in Ukraine in the Daily Mail. The TL;DR version is that while the Ukrainians are winning the information war the Russians may be winning on the ground.

Additional points:

  • Putin may be having some problems at home:

    On Friday, Russia organized a massive rally in an effort to show the Russian people stand behind him. Meanwhile, thousands of Russians have been arrested for protesting the war.

    Putin has also issued a chilling warning to dissenters in his country, likening them to gnats and signaling new repression, while passing laws that make protests illegal and protesters are subject to fines and even prison sentences.

    The leader of a unified cause does not employ these tactics.

  • We should maintain perspective on the timeframe:

    We must remember that it took the U.S. military three weeks to take Baghdad and 42 days to conquer Iraq in 2003.

    And the Iraqis put up less resistance than the Ukrainians are.

  • Russian military capabilities should also be seen in perspective:

    While the information campaigns have clouded the reality of the situation on the ground, what has also become clear is that Russian military does not pose a conventional threat to NATO.

    Smaller, non-NATO members, such as Moldova, are not so lucky.

Read the whole thing.

1 comment… add one
  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    “Putin may be having some problems at home”.

    That could be one interpretation of the rally. Here’s another.
    – Leaders of authoritarian regimes rarely lose power due to domestic discontent if they are willing to use enough force; examples abound — Venezuela (despite hyperinflation/famine), Iran (sanctions, hyperinflation, Iran/Iraq war), China. Does Putin or Russian security forces look like they aren’t willing to use force?
    – What polling since the war started shows Putin’s approval rating has gone up, and 60% support the war. I don’t put great weight in polling in a polity where expression has a cost — but it would be consistent with a rally round the flag effect.
    – The next Russian Presidential election is 2 years away.

    In American politics, now (2 years before an election) would be the time to start campaigning for that election. That rally had the trappings of a campaign rally… just compare it to Putin campaign rallies from the past decade. I don’t know why Putin cares to campaign or actually win elections, even if the results are preordained, but he clearly does.

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